indy Road course (cup)

Here are my top drivers for Sunday's Cup Series race on the Indy road course--

• Ross Chastain - What's not to like? Top 7 finishes at all three road course races this year, backed up by being in the Top 8 in green flag speed at each of those races. He had the 4th quickest single lap in practice Saturday, but just didn't measure up in qualifying, so starts 21st. Great floor and upside. He also ran really well in the Xfinity race on Saturday.
• Austin Dillon - Another guy who ran fine in practice (12th) but slipped in qualifying (29th). He's really improved his road course skill and has already finished 10th and 11th at two road courses this year. He was also running in the Top 15 late at Road America before a flat tire ended his race there.
• Hendrick Cars (Kyle Larson 22nd, William Byron 23rd and Alex Bowman 28th) - It seems like the whole company missed the set up pretty badly as they weren't much quicker in practice. Unlike the JGR teams, however, all three have shown Top 10-12 green flag speed at the road courses earlier this year, so there's a lot of reason to think it was just a bad day Saturday and they'll get something figured out for Sunday.  I feel pretty strongly that Larson and Byron will rebound and end up doing pretty well. They both were in the Top 3 late at Indy last year before the curbing came up and destroyed Byron's car and turned the race into a shit show. Bowman is more of a mystery to me, but he's also really cheap at $7,800.
• A.J. Allmendinger - Again showed his road course mastery in Saturday's Xfinity win. He is just so good at being under control and not overdriving the car, which is key at a road course. He was 8th in practice speed. He won here last year in the Cup Series (although it was a fluke) and nearly won at COTA earlier this year.
• Eric Jones and Ricky Stenhouse - Classic high floor but low ceiling plays. There's really no reason to think either can finish inside the Top 20 given their lack of speed in practice and general lack of speed at road courses. But they also start 35th and 38th respectively and should have enough to move up +10 position difference over the course of the race.
• Cole Custer and Ty Gibbs - Probably too risky for cash games, but I like their upside to gain +10 position difference and finish well inside the Top 20. Custer has been 9th, 18th and 9th in green flag speed at the three road course races this year. He was running inside the Top 10 here last year before the curbing stuff/shit show at the end of the race. And he has more experience here then most others from his time in the Xfinity Series. Gibbs is in a fast car and has a lot of road course talent. If he doesn't overdrive it, he could surprise on Sunday.