martinsville

SUNDAY UPDATE:  TRUEX AND JOHNSON FAIL INSPECTION SO GET OFFICIAL STARTING SPOT IN THE REAR.  SQUARELY ON THE CASH GAME BOARD NOW.  KESELOWSKI DROPS TO REAR FOR UNAPPROVED ADJUSTMENTS.  KEEPS TOP 10 OFFICIAL STARTING SPOT, SO OFF THE CASH GAME BOARD.

SATURDAY NIGHT UPDATE:  Here's my cash game lineup construction thoughts as of now.  Remember, there will be tech inspection on Sunday morning and anyone who fails will have their Q time disallowed and get an official starting spot at the rear of the field.  That could change things dramatically and give us new guys that are essential plays.  So stay current on Sunday morning.  If there is something significant, I'll update if I can, but no guarantee.

• I'm locking in 3 guys for sure -- Kyle Busch, AJ Allmendinger and Paul Menard.  Kyle is on pole, his practice speed numbers look great and he actually sounded really happy with his car, which is rare.  I'm expecting a big chunk of laps led/fastest laps and a Top 5 finish.  AJ is really strong here and starts 17th, which is pretty good for us.  He was in the middle of his first Q run when Bubba spun and brought out the red flag in Round One.  That forced AJ to make a second Q run in Round One and left him with more worn tires than the rest of the field in Round Two.  He likely would have qualified much better without that incident.  He's finished Top 10 4 of the last 5 here and that's a reasonable expectation for tomorrow.  At his salary, he's a must play in my book.  Menard will start 39th after they had an engine ignition problem in qualifying.  The team replaced the engine and he'll start from the rear tomorrow -- which doesn't really matter since he's credited with starting 39th anyway.  He's finished in the Top 20 here 4 of the last 5 races and I'd hope for a 18th-23rd place finish here tomorrow.
• The rest of the lineup can go a bunch of different ways.  I suspect Chase Elliott (21st) and Eric Jones (24th) will be pretty heavily owned.  I don't have a clear answer for where to go with them because there's a lot of conflicting signals.  Chase is on a roll overall right now, but he didn't really show top end speed in practice.  He was 19th in 10-lap average in final practice.  But, he led 123 laps here last Fall and should have won the race (Hamlin wrecked him).  Give him that finish and he's run off 3 straight Top 10s here.  On the flip side, Jones was 10th in 10-lap average and 3rd in overall average in final practice.  But, in 3 Cup races here, he's finished no better than 12th.  Forced to pick between them, I'll take Chase.  But I don't think either is a must have.
• I think you'll want one other Top 10 starter who has a chance to lead laps.  I think Bowyer and Keselowski are the best bets there.  Bowyer won here in Spring while leading 215 laps.  He's had 3 Top 7 finishes here in his 3 races since joining SHR.  I think he'll grab some laps led and fastest laps points and absent a wreck or mechanical issue, I can't imagine anything other than a Top 10 finish.  Keselowski has finished in the Top 10 here in 6 of the last 7 races.  He led only 1 lap here in Spring, but in the 2 races before that he led over 100 laps in each of them.
• One other mid-priced option to note is Austin Dillon.  He starts 28th.  He's had a number of Top 18 runs (including 2 Top 10 runs) from a similar starting spot in the last 6 races here.  Not a must play by any means but I wanted to give another playable option at a mid-tier salary. 
• If you want/need to go super cheap in your last spot, I'd take a flyer on Cole Whitt.  In his last 3 races here in the #72 car, he's finished 27th (+8 positions), 25th (+5 positions) and 21st (+10 positions).  If the car holds together, hopefully he can make another run in the mid-20s with +4-7 positions.       

Real happy with the guys I talked about last week.  While Paul Menard didn't finish well because of damage sustained in a random pit road incident, he was running in the Top 10 and had legitimate speed just as I thought.  Overall a very solid and profitable week.

For Martinsville, all the way up to 500 laps so finding those Dominators is key.  BEWARE that post-qualifying technical inspection will be on Sunday morning.  If a car fails, its qualifying time will be disallowed and its official starting spot will move to the back of the field.  In the past, we've seen a few cars fail tech and, if the same happens on Sunday, it could open last minute value plays who will gain a lot of position difference upside.  So be sure to stay with it on Sunday morning before the race begins.

Here are the guys I'm focused on heading into the weekend.

• Kyle Busch -- Has been The Man here lately.  Has finished 1st twice and 2nd twice in the last 5 races here.  He's finished in the Top 5 the last 6 races here.  And in that span, he's had races where he's led 352, 274 and 184 laps.  He is the most likely Dominator and comes at a $600 discount off Harvick (who hasn't led a single lap here in the last 4 races).
• Brad Keselowski --  Has a win and 5 Top 5 finishes in the last 7 races here.  He's also led 100+ laps in 2 of the last 3 races here.
• Clint Bowyer -- Won the Spring race after starting 9th and leading 215 laps.  Has been really strong at the shorter flat tracks throughout his career and particularly since joining SHR.  In 3 races here with SHR, he's finished 7th, 3rd and 1st.
• Chase Elliott -- Looking really strong right now.  Last Fall, he should have won this race but was taken out by Denny Hamlin.  In that race, Elliott led 123 laps and was leading late in the race.  If you give him credit for that run, he's stacked together 3 straight solid races here.
• Ryan Blaney -- Started 5th, led 145 laps, and finished 3rd here in the Spring.  
• Denny Hamlin -- Led 111 laps here in the Spring and this is the type of track where he generally does well.  But his struggles this year are well documented.  This is probably his last real chance to pull off a victory this year, so I do look for a strong run.  And he's a good value at $8,500.
• Aric Almirola -- Been steady here in recent years with typical mid-teen finishes.  Clearly in the strongest car he's ever been in and he's got all the incentive to get after it this weekend as he shoots for a chance at the Final 4.  Under priced at $8,300. 
• Jimmie Johnson -- This used to be his personal playground, but not so much in recent years.  That said, he won here as recently as Fall 2016 and he's finished in the Top 15 in the last 6 races here.  Likely the last chance for he and Chad Knaus to score a victory in their final season together.
• AJ Allmendinger -- Crazily under priced at $6,200 since this is one of his best tracks outside the road courses.  In the last 5 races here, he has 4 Top 10 finishes.  A near lock for the salary and scoring potential.
• Alex Bowman -- Very small sample size, but he started 16th and finished 7th here in the Spring.  A definite tournament option at a reasonable $7,900 salary.

We'll have more late Saturday night after practice and qualifying.