dover xfinity

200 laps at Dover, so a good chunk of fastest laps and laps led points are out there.  Based on past performance and Friday practice, it looks like Cole Custer and Christopher Bell are the two most likely dominators and we can probably fit them both in a cash game lineup with four decent options behind them.  Here are my main targets:

• Custer -- Was fastest by far in final practice.  Led 155 of 200 laps here in the Spring.
• Bell -- Won the last two races here.  Led 110 and 44 laps in the last two Dover races.
• Allgaier -- I don't see him leading a lot of laps unless something happens to Custer and/or Bell.  But he's finished in the Top 3 the last four Dover races, including a win last Spring with 104 laps led.  It won't make sense to play him in cash games unless something crazy happens in qualifying, but he's a good tournament pivot off Custer/Bell.
• Justin Haley -- Too cheap at $8,200.  Reliable team with a Top 10 finish likely.  Showed consistent speed on a long run in final practice -- 5th on the 15 lap and 20 lap time sheet.
• Zane Smith and Ross Chastain are two guys in a similar price range that I could use as well depending on starting spot.
• Sub-$7,000 plays:
  • Ray Black Jr. -- Consistent team, runs all the laps, showed 16th-20th place speed in practice.
  • B.J McLeod -- The only reliable sub-$6K guy.  22nd in final practice.  I wouldn't touch any of the other sub-$6K guys in a cash game setting unless qualifying leaves you desperate.  All of them are start and park and/or mechanical risks.  I just don't use MBM guys in cash (Finchum, Hill or Gase) because they are unreliable and unpredictable.
  • Vinnie Miller / Matt Mills -- Have used these guys a lot this year.  Cheap and we know their approach is to race conservatively and finish the race ahead of start and parks and retirements.
  • Maybe Dillon Bassett.  He's too risky for me, but I see an argument for using him.  He's in decent equipment and they'll try to run the whole race.  My issue with the Bassett guys is they are trying to race hard and go fast and that's really hard for inexperienced, part time guys.  And that's not a knock on them, it would be true for anyone in that spot.  Dillon's done four races this year and done really well in two (15th and 13th at the two Richmond races) but also done really poorly in two (38th Michigan and 26th at Iowa with major negative position difference).  I don't want that profile in my cash lineup unless there are no other good options and he qualifies poorly.  Fire him up in tournaments though because (depending on qualifying spot) he's probably got the highest ceiling of the guys in this salary range.   
• Landon Cassill -- DO NOT USE.  He's in the #89 start and park, so don't be confused by practice speed, prior results or salary.
• Other guys who I think will NOT finish -- Joe Nemechek and Carl Long will definitely park.  I think Kyle Weatherman and Mike Harmon will as well, but they may run a bit longer.  I'm not sure about Bailey Currey and JJ Yeley, but they are far too risky for cash games.