Roval xfinity

As I worked through lineup combinations, I found myself leaving some salary on the table. We normally would never do that outside a superspeedway, but I think it's just fine to leave up to $1k on the table for Saturday.

• Ty Gibbs, A.J. Allmendinger and Austin Cindric -- It all starts with these three studs. I'd be really surprised if anyone else wins this race. These guys have combined to win four of the six road course races in the Xfinity Series and Kyle Busch (who's not running Xfinity this weekend) won the other two. Most lineups will start with two (and perhaps all) of these guys.
  • Gibbs - The #54 car has won four of the six road course races this year, so it's really hard to pass up Gibbs with his race winning upside and position difference upside from the 12th starting spot. He was truly incredible at the Daytona road course which is the closest comp to the Roval.
  • Allmendinger - We know he's awesome at any road course. He's won the last two Xfinity races here, although I wouldn't put too much stock in last year's result because the race was run in a driving rainstorm and was completely ridiculous. Like Gibbs, he has race winning upside and position difference upside from the 14th starting spot.
  • Cindric - Starts 1st and should lead for a while early on as Gibbs and Allmendinger work their way up. It could help him that there is no scheduled competition caution in the 20 lap first stage. The one concern is that he has no position difference upside and will really need things to go nearly perfect to overcome that built in 10+ point advantage that Gibbs and Allmendinger have.
• Don't like the cheap sub-$6k plays. The only one I'd use is Kris Wright. He's in the #15 car for J.D. Motorsports, but this is actually a Sam Hunt Racing prepared Toyota. He's run these in the earlier road course races and has two Top 20 finishes. He's run into some bad luck and probably should have some better results as well. Borderline Top 20 upside and extremely safe floor starting 38th.
• Other mid-tier plays in rough ranking order--
  • Austin Hill - Starts 40th. Top 20 upside. Reasonable price. In a better Hattori car, not the typical MBM #61 car.
  • Landon Cassill - Solid driver and car. Four Top 20 finishes in the six road course races this year. Not as much upside as some others, but a pretty safe overall package here with +10 position difference a good bet. Cheap.
  • Preston Pardus - Has run a lot of road courses for this team. Top 20 upside for sure. More upside then Cassill, but more risk as well. 
  • Sage Karam and Will Rodgers -- Similar profiles. Road course backgrounds but somewhat limited Xfinity Series experience.
  • Gray Gaulding - Really like the driver, but don't really trust the Mike Harmon car.
  • Josh Bilicki - Very surprised he hasn't had better results running the 07/17 cars at road courses this year. Road course ringer.