atlanta cup series

This will be the first race using most of the new rules package in the Cup series.  In all honesty, no one really has much of an idea how everything is going to shake out when we get 40 cars up to speed using this new package.  Now add in the extreme tire fall off at Atlanta PLUS the fact that it's been cloudy all weekend thus far, rained on Saturday night to wash all the rubber off the track, but is predicted to be sunny by race time Sunday afternoon.  Simply put, no one can meaningfully forecast how this race will go.

Here are my lineup thoughts:

• What to do with Harvick?  Since joining SHR five years ago, he's never led less than 110 laps in the Atlanta race.  He's simply been a beast at this track.  The question is whether this new rules package slows him down.  He starts 18th, so comes with massive upside if he's able to get to the front and lead the kind of laps he has the last five years.  I haven't made a final decision, but I'm leaning toward fading him in cash games and 50/50s.  While I like that he made a very long run in final practice and showed excellent long run speed, I'm not convinced he'll mow down the field like in years past and his top price prevents you from getting the balance you want from a cash lineup.
  
• There are some good options starting even further back in the field -- Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano all start from 22nd on back.  I like all of them for cash games.  Elliott has finished in the Top 10 here in each of his three Cup series races -- twice coming from a starting spot of 24th or worse.  Since coming to Team Penske, Logano has finished in the Top 6 in four of his six races here.  He hasn't finished worse than 14th in those races.  Blaney does not have great history here, but he does come with an enticing $8,900 salary and almost no downside risk from his 26th place starting spot.
  
• Clint Bowyer has shown great short run speed this weekend, but his lack of success at 1.5 mile tracks worries me.  In 24 such races at SHR, he has only six Top 10 finishes and has led a grand total of 45 laps in those races.  I'm also concerned that he didn't run even 10 consecutive laps in final practice, so we don't have any indicator of his longer run speed.  From his 3rd place starting spot, he's a tournament only play for me.
  
• Chris Buescher looks enticed at $6,200 and starting 30th.  But he's finished in the mid-20's in all three of his Cup series races here.  He's still a good play, but don't expect anything more than that.
• From the very bottom, salary saver tier, I think Chastain, Cassill and Klingerman are your best bets -- probably in that order.  I don't like any of them, but if that's the salary you have left, there you go.
• I like Kyle Busch as a tournament play.  He was clearly the fastest car in final practice before hitting the wall.  He'll go to a backup car and start from the rear despite officially having the 6th place starting spot.  Particularly in a 500 mile race, he has plenty of time to go through the field and lead 150+ laps if his backup car has similar speed.  Also, they say these cars with the new rules package drive a bit like the trucks.  Did you see how KB carved up the truck field on Saturday?
• I'd also throw Larson into some tournament lineups.  He had the best 20-lap average speed in final practice and was second on the 10-lap chart behind Busch.  It wouldn't shock me if Larson dials in the top groove and drives around people that way just like Tyler Reddick did all race long in the Xfinity championship race at Homestead last year.