atlanta cup

We've got 400 miles of Cup Series racing Sunday from Atlanta. All recent races here have been 500 miles, so this is a little shorter. But I don't think that will have a ton of impact on our analysis. Here are my main targets heading into Sunday:

• Kyle Larson - Duh. He's been incredible at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. In the earlier Atlanta race, he led 269 laps, ran 104 fastest laps and scored 160 DK points. In the two 1.5 mile track races since then, he's led 132 and 327 laps and scored 100 and 157 DK points. I just don't see how you can fade him in cash games. But I would be open to it in tournaments given the price tag and other options.
• William Byron - Byron has a win at Miami and finished 9th or better at all five 1.5 mile track races this season. If it weren't for Larson, I think we'd be talking a lot about Byron's performance overall and at the 1.5 mile tracks in particular. Starting 19th, he offers 10+ position difference upside with the potential to lead laps, run fastest laps and finish in the Top 5. Huge ceiling here and it would be a shocker to not see him crush 5x his salary.
• Alex Bowman - Very similar story to Byron, just a bit less consistent performance at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He ran 3rd at Atlanta earlier this year and has had success throughout his career at worn out tracks with high tire wear -- including wins at Auto Club and Chicago. A similar huge ceiling to Byron, although I think it's a bit less likely he gets there.
  • Quick comment on Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney. I like them both and either or both could have a really good day with position difference upside. But I just don't see why they're more expensive than Byron and Bowman. For cash games or single entry tournaments, I just can't recommend them over the Hendrick drivers. They could be good contrarian plays if you want to go that way. But, even then, I probably prefer someone like Kyle Busch or Martin Truex who could be a surprise dominator.
• Ryan Newman - Starts 29th and offers +10 position difference upside for a good salary. Started 28th and finished 13th earlier this year at Atlanta. In ten combined starts at the 1.5 mile tracks this year, the Rousch drivers (Newman and Buescher) have nine Top 20 finishes.
• Anthony Alfredo - If we want the Hendrick studs, we need some salary savers too. Alfredo should work alright starting 32nd for only $5,500. To be clear, I don't like this or think he'll do any better than a 25th-28th place finish. It's a mean to the end -- which is getting the Hendrick guys who could blow the roof of the slate. Alfredo has finished all five races at the 1.5 mile tracks in the 23rd-27th range.
• Bubba Wallace - Another potential salary saver. He was 16th here earlier this year and turned in a 14th place finish at the last 1.5 mile track race in Charlotte. We've been starting to see some improved performance from this team -- including three Top 15 finishes at the last four non-road course races. A Top 20 is certainly a reasonable expectation.
• Michael McDowell - Last salary saver option. Five for five Top 20 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. He was 19th earlier this year at Atlanta.
• Ryan Preece - High floor starting 34th. He's not cheap though. So he probably needs to come through with a Top 20 run to make this work. He can do that, but I'm not overly confident he will. 
• Daniel Suarez - Suarez was 17th here earlier this year and has finished in the Top 18 in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year. Again, though, not cheap. It can work, but it has to be a perfect run for him to make it work.