atlanta (part 1)

​Pic from AMS official website

​Here's our first detailed look at this weekend's race at Atlanta Motor Speedway.  With all the randomness and unpredictability that goes into a plate track race like Daytona, I consider this the true start to the fantasy NASCAR season.  So let's get started and win some contests.

This is a 500 mile race on an old, worn out 1.5 mile surface.  Last year, most of the cars that ran all the laps made 9 - 11 pit stops.  So, with the new pit stop procedures this year, a team that can have clean, penalty free pit stops is going to gain a significant advantage in track position.  Not to knock them unfairly, but the 11 team of Denny Hamlin seems to have an inordinate share of pit road mishaps.  It has been prevalent in years past and reared it's head at Daytona when Hamlin slide through his box and was then penalized when the crew started fueling the car before it was fully back in the pit stall.  Two mistakes in the same pit stop in race one is not the way to start.

Another factor this week will be the weather.  The schedule is set up with one practice and qualifying on Friday, one practice on Saturday and the race at 2pm Eastern time on Sunday.  Friday's weather is predicted to be OK.  But Saturday shows a 30-50% rain chance.  And Sunday shows rain likely throughout the day.  Hopefully we can get the race in Sunday without delays or interruptions.  Even if we do, though, the conditions could be much different than what the drivers experienced earlier in the weekend.  That should favor drivers who have done well in recent races and have a good baseline coming into the weekend.

So, here's our list of the top recent performers at Atlanta.  You'll probably want to get two or three of these guys onto your DK roster:

• Kevin Harvick -- Kevin has dominated the last four Atlanta races, but he has no wins and only one Top 5 finish to show for it.  In 2014, he led 195 of 335 laps, but finished 19th.  In 2015, he led 116 of 325 laps and finished 2nd.  In 2016, he led 131 of 330 laps and finished 6th.  And, in 2017, he led 292 of 325 laps, but finished 9th.  This is a case of bad luck or mistakes hitting at the wrong time.  He could very easily have four straight wins.  He loves to ride around the bottom yellow line here, so we'll look for that in practice to confirm he has the same feel and handle as in recent years.  In addition to great race performances, Harvick has also won the pole twice in the last four races.
• Martin Truex Jr. -- The 78 group just kills the 1.5 mile tracks.  As we noted in the season preview series, seven of Truex's eight wins in 2017 were at 1.5 mile tracks.  He won seven of the eleven races run at those tracks in 2017.  He finished no worse than 8th in those races and his average finish was 2.5.  And he led over 33% of the laps run at those tracks.  The only nitpick is that Truex has never won at Atlanta.  His last three finishes were 8th, 7th and 6th, though, so he's been near the front consistently.  Despite the lack of wins, he and Harvick could make a strong 1-2 punch this week since (depending on starting position) they are likely to score a load of laps led and fastest lap bonus points.  
• Chase Elliott -- Chase is from nearby Dawsonville, Georgia, so it's a special "home" race for him.  In his only two Cup Series races in Atlanta, he finished 5th and 8th.  He's a strong pick for another Top 10 finish.
• Brad Keselowski -- Brad won the 2017 Atlanta race and finished 9th in both the 2016 and 2015 races.  Despite those impressive finishes, however, he doesn't have the laps led or other numbers to show real domination at this track.
• Kurt Busch -- Kurt has been consistently strong at this track.  In the last eight Atlanta races, Kurt has one win, six Top 10 finishes and no finish worse than 13th position.  Here's the list of his last eight finishing positions with the most recent first -- 7th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 13th, 4th, 6th and 1st.
• Jimmie Johnson -- Jimmie won the Atlanta races in 2015 and 2016.  In 2015, he led 92 laps and in 2016 he led 52 laps.  Simply put, he has shown an ability to close out a race at this track and best a car (Harvick's) that seemed unbeatable.  On the flip side, Jimmie had a disappointing 19th place finish in the most recent Atlanta race in 2017.  As of now, I don't love Jimmie in this spot given all that's gone on of late, but I can't not mention a guy of his stature when he's won two of the last three races at this track.  And I could not fault anyone for using him this week.  Just not sure I'm comfortable enough to do so yet.
• Joey Logano -- He looked strong last week and this 22 team might be getting the championship level juice back.  Joey has been good, but not great, at this track of late.  His last five finishes are 6th, 12th, 4th, 14th and 2nd.

We'll have more analysis as the weekend nears and some more definitive guidance after we see what happens in qualifying on Friday afternoon.  If you're interested in tracking the weather situation, check out Brian Neudorff on twitter @NASCAR_WXMAN

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