atlanta Sunday morning update

• Rain is a good possibility.  The start time for the race has been moved up to 1pm Eastern time to try to beat the rain.  But forecasts show rain likely from about 9am Sunday through 12 noon on Monday, so a washout Sunday remains a distinct possibility.  You can follow race related weather forecasts on Twitter with @NASCAR_WXMAN and @RaceWeather.

• I still like Harvick a lot.  As we have said all week, he has dominated the last four Cup races at Atlanta and it looked in practice like his car is dialed in again.  He was 7th in the 10 consecutive lap time and 3rd in the 20 consecutive lap time.  This shows his strength over the long run.  He also dominated the Xfinity race Saturday -- winning it while leading 141 of 163 laps.  The Fox broadcast also mentioned radio chatter that Harvick was real happy with his Cup car in final practice.  Everyone laughed and noted it was terrible news for the rest of the field.

• I also still like Kurt Busch.  He has quietly finished in the Top 7 in six of the last eight Atlanta races.  In final practice, he was 9th in 10 consecutive lap time and 5th in 20 consecutive lap time.

• I am feeling better about Kyle Busch.  It is still risky to start someone from the pole given the downside potential in position difference.  But Kyle seems to have a very strong car for long runs.  He was 2nd in 10 consecutive lap time and 1st in 20 consecutive lap time. 

• I am adding Clint Bowyer to the target list.  He starts 9th.  In final practice, he was 9th in single lap time, 4th in 10 consecutive lap time, 1st in 15 consecutive lap time and 2nd in 20 consecutive lap time.  In a post practice interview, he sounded very happy with his car.

• I'm also adding Blaney, who starts 26th.  In final practice, he was 6th in 10 consecutive lap time and 4th in 20 consecutive lap time.

• As far as other targets starting further back, I rank them Truex (best), then Johnson, then Elliott.  Truex had the fifth best 10 consecutive lap time and dominated these 1.5 mile tracks last year.  Johnson has won two of the last three Atlanta races.  He had the 13th best 10 consecutive lap time.  Elliott has two strong finishes in two starts here, but was only 18th on the 10 consecutive lap time chart.

• For cheap targets, Kasey Kahne looked the most solid, with Ty Dillion behind him.

• I am still fading Ryan Newman.  He was only 17th fastest for 10 consecutive lap time.

• Here's a couple of lineup options--
  • Balanced Option w/ Harvick dominating
    • Harvick
    • Truex
    • Blaney
    • Bowyer (or Kurt Busch)
    • Ty Dillon
    • Kahne
  • Balanced Option w/ Kyle dominating
    • Kyle
    • Truex
    • Blaney
    • Johnson
    • Ty Dillon
    • Kahne
    • (can swap Bowyer or Kurt Busch in Blaney or Johnson spots)
  • Fade Truex -- I think Truex is going to have a great day.  But he'll be 50%+ owned in all likelihood, so it you want to go contrarian, take two front runners and fill in behind them:
    • Harvick
    • Kyle Busch
    • Johnson
    • Blaney
    • Ty Dillon
    • Kahne
    • (can swap Bowyer or Kurt Busch in Blaney or Johnson spots)

• Good luck on Sunday -- or whenever this race runs!  We'll be back after the race to review how our picks did and take a first glance at Las Vegas.

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