atlanta trucks

I think the Trucks build is pretty straight forward this week and there's only two key decision points I'll focus on in this article.

(1) Take Kyle Busch. I documented in the Charlotte preview below that his salary really should be about $20k in the Trucks contests. He did not have a good (or typical Kyle) race at Charlotte because there was something wrong in the front end of the truck. Despite that, he still scored 75 DK points, which allowed him to hit 5x on his $15k salary. Kyle owns the team so rest assured he won't be coming into this race with a broken truck. And he's going to be mad as hell about losing the last race and not collecting on the "bounty" Kevin Harvick put out there. Mad Kyle is usually dominant Kyle. Crazily, DK reduced his salary to $14k and he starts 6th -- which gives him a much easier path to dominating the race with laps led and fastest laps. 100 DK points is well within reach and I just don't see how you can possibly fade him in a cash game.

(2) I think it's worth paying up for another real high priced stud - either Chase Elliott or Ross Chastain. I think this makes sense in this slate for three reasons. First, both of these guys are going to score a lot of points and have tremendous upside. Second, I don't see a lot of good plays in the mid range from about $7k-$10k. I just don't see any good options in that range with significant dominator or position difference potential. Third, there are plenty of very cheap plays starting way back in the field. As between Elliott and Chastain, it's just a question of how aggressive you want to be. I think Busch or Elliott will lead almost every lap and run almost every fastest lap. It's reasonable to project Elliott for a Top 3 finish -- which alone would put him at 51 DK points. He would only need 14 additional points from laps led or fastest laps to hit the 5x mark and that's very doable considering the tire fall off we always see at Atlanta and the amount of traffic there is with a 40 truck field. With Kyle in the race at Charlotte, Chase had 22.75 combined laps led and fastest laps points. It's a more aggressive play with a lot of upside. Chastain, on the other hand, starts 27th, so offers a good +20 position difference upside. It's not reasonable to expect him to lead laps or run anything more then a handful of fastest laps. So this is a safer play with a little less upside. But, even if he finishes 10th, you're still looking at 51 DK points even without laps led or fastest laps.

Just a quick note on John Hunter Nemechek - who you could group with Elliott and Chastain. He ran great and finished 6th at Charlotte. But this truck has had mechanical issues in the past and John can be really aggressive at times. I certainly would not call it a bad play to use him, but it's more risky then I like to be.

(3) Here are the cheaper plays I'm looking at to fill out my roster:

• Jeb Burton - He's a solid driver in a solid truck starting 26th. He's expensive, so it only works if you go the Chastain route. He hasn't been in a truck this year. Last year, he did two races for this Niece team and finished 9th in both races. Something similar is a fair expectation.
• Baley Currey - He can maybe crack the Top 30 if the truck holds together. This is a very small team so there's always a risk of mechanical failure and the truck won't be very fast. But Currey is competent and should take care of the truck as long as it doesn't break down. Currey finished 28th in the last race at Charlotte.
• Clay Greenfield - Starts dead last, so nothing by positive position difference. Finished 29th a few weeks ago at Charlotte. Small team, so there is a break down risk.
• Jess Little - Should be heavily owned again after finishing 20th in the last race at Charlotte. No hesitation in playing him again.
• Brennan Poole - Was great on the 1.5 mile tracks last season, including a 13th place finish at Atlanta. Was wrecked in the last race at Charlotte, but finished 20th earlier this season at Las Vegas. Definite Top 20 potential and should be highly owned again.
• Austin Wayne Self - This should be about a 20th place truck, so he's got one of the better upsides as far as finishing position goes in this group. Finished 17th and 19th at Las Vegas and Charlotte earlier this season.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb - She's near minimum price and starts 38th. As long as the truck doesn't break down, she should finish around 30th. You're not looking for much here. You just want enough points to make it worth paying up for your two studs. 
• Spencer Boyd - Spencer races with the Young Motorsports team and usually has a 22nd-25th place truck. He finished 25th at both Las Vegas and Charlotte earlier this season. He also finished 25th last year at Atlanta. He was this cheap at Charlotte because he started 19th so wasn't going to gain spots. He shouldn't still be this cheap starting 31st.
• Tate Fogleman - If you need to save even more, I could see using Tate Fogleman. This team pretty consistently puts out a truck that runs around 20th. If he can just hang tight around where he starts (22nd), he can get you 20+ points and pay off a $4,600 salary.

Bets

• I played Kyle Busch -135 to win earlier in the week. It's probably playable up to about -150. I do think he crushes here but Elliott obviously adds a real threat that Kyle doesn't often face in these truck races.
• Austin Hill -110 Ben Rhodes -- The #16 Hattori team has an elite 1.5 mile track program.