atlanta trucks

Saturday 1:30 EST bet added

• ​Friesen -115 Moffitt

First a quick programming note -- I'll be covering all three races this weekend at Atlanta, but I'm not doing anything for the Bristol dirt stuff next week. That is going to be such a wild and unpredictable event that it doesn't make sense to spend the time studying all the one off drivers and situations were going to see in those races. I'll spend that time reviewing what I've learned in 2021 so far and getting ready for the races we'll see after the Easter weekend break.

I've got a pretty small pool of cash game drivers for the Truck race this week, so I'll review everyone on that list.

• Kyle Busch -- I'm using him and think he's too cheap even at $14k. Starting 2nd, he doesn't have any position difference upside, but he's got a clear shot to lead laps and run fastest laps right from the start. Last year at Atlanta, Kyle was out front and likely wins this race if he doesn't get collected in Jordan Anderson's wreck. As it was, Kyle had 37 laps led and 39 fastest laps in that race. He wrecked with about 30 laps left, so certainly would have added to that total. To make his salary work, he needs about 25 extra points for laps led and fastest laps. In his five Truck races last year, he averaged 38 extra points for laps led and fastest laps -- and only once fell below the 25 point mark (19 points at Charlotte). Although there is some risk with John Hunter Nemechek running so well to start the year, I still feel confident that Kyle will get to the 70-80 point range.
• Ross Chastain -- Ross has the opposite situation. He's not going to lead laps or run fastest laps, but he has a ton of position difference upside starting 40th. He doesn't have Kyle's 80+ point ceiling, but he has a pretty safe path to at least 60 points and maybe a bit more. I just don't think there's enough savings (only $1k) to give up the chance that Kyle dominates from start to finish and throws up a 90 point race. And Kyle doesn't need a ceiling performance to outscore Ross by 5 points, which is all you'd really want for a $1k difference.
• Tyler Ankrum -- Good position difference upside, but he's not really a safe play since he has more incidents then we like from a cash game play. Also likely too expensive to make Kyle work.
• Grant Enfinger -- Real safe bet for a Top 10 finish. He's back in a ThorSport truck this week and has finished 3rd and 1st the last two Atlanta races. The win last year was a fluke due to a late race caution, but he's awfully good here. Probably a tad on the expensive side considering he's unlikely to lead laps or run fastest laps. He's also tough to fit with Kyle's salary unless you're willing to use a full punt play.
• Derek Kraus -- Basically Tyler Ankrum but over $2k cheaper. Top 10 upside, but carries some risk of wrecking. He's off to a tough start this year, so it's not a completely safe play. But I still like it quite a bit. He finished 7th at Atlanta last year and was typically an 8th-12th place truck at the 1.5 mile tracks last season.
• Raphael Lessard -- He wrecked himself at Las Vegas and might be pressing too hard in his second season with a top tier team. He needs to show results soon. He's not the safest play, but should be able to get about +10 position difference if he doesn't have any issues.
• Ryan Truex -- Veteran driver here with +10-15 position difference upside. Probably going to be really heavily owned in cash games with his solid combination of value, safe floor and position difference upside.
• Spencer Davis -- His first race this season, so that's a risk for a small team. But these guys did alright last year and had five Top 20 finishes in nine races at the 1.5 mile tracks last season. I wouldn't count on that, but there is +15-18 position difference upside here and a very safe floor from the 39th starting spot.
• Chase Purdy -- I said it at Vegas and it's still crazy to have a GMS truck under $7k. Purdy has not been good, but this is Top 15 equipment without a doubt. Not as safe as Truex or Davis probably, but he really should finish higher than them.
• Hallie Deegan -- She's fine and should be able to run in the Top 20. I'm not ending up at her salary with the other people I want to use, but I'd have no problem using her.
• Brett Holmes -- Showed well before getting caught up in a wreck at Las Vegas. He's a near lock play for me at this price. I'd prefer not to go below this price.
• Cory Roper -- Is not on my list, but I wanted to mention him since he seems to offer a similar profile to Brett Holmes. Cory races hard and will throw up some good finishes from time to time, but that also results in DNFs quite often as well. It seems crazy to say an ARCA guy doing his second Truck Series race (Holmes) is a safer play, but that's the way I see it.
• Ryan Ellis and Akinori Ogata -- Both Reaume trucks offer a similar package. They'll be slow, but they aren't really racing. They're just out there to run the laps and finish in front of the trucks that wreck out. There's usually high attrition in truck races, so this strategy can get us +8-10 position difference when they're starting this far back. I don't love it, and probably won't end up here, but it is an option if you prefer to pay up more at your other roster spots.