atlanta xfinity

Saturday A.M. Update - Added a few bets at the bottom

A lot of your lineup is going to follow from two major decisions:

• 1 - Do you play Noah Gragson, $9,100, starting 1st? There's a pretty compelling case for using him. He ran really well at the last 1.5 mile track race in Charlotte. He was in the Top 5 most of the race and was battling for the race win in the closing laps when he got loose on a late restart and triggered a wreck that damaged his car and resulted in an 11th place finish. He was really good at the 1.5 mile tracks last year. And he has the best pit stall for this race because he won the last race at Bristol. All this leads me to think he should lead laps at the start of the race and be in line for a Top 5 finish. If he were to finish 5th, that would be 35 DK points, so you'd only need 10 more points from laps led and fastest laps to hit a 5x value. It's very realistic to think he can hit that and more. He is aggressive, so there's always a chance of a wreck and bad finish, but that's pretty much true of everyone in this series, so I don't think it changes the analysis much.
• 2 - Do you play AJ Allmendinger, $11,600, starting 30th? It's certainly a high floor play, which we really like in cash games. I think it's reasonable to expect about a 10th place finish, which would put him just shy of a 5x return unless he leads laps or runs fastest laps. There are definitely other guys in the salary range with higher ceilings, including Chase Briscoe and Justin Allgaier. So you unless you can jam two of them in your lineup, you're going to have to decide whether you want AJ's safety or another guy's upside.

Who else is a target in the upper salary range:

• Briscoe and Allgaier are probably the two best drivers in the series right now. You can't go wrong with either one really. Allgaier is probably the biggest threat to Gragson leading a bunch of laps early. And Briscoe offers some position difference kicker starting 9th. It wouldn't surprise to see either or both of them leading chunks of the race. Briscoe's team, in particular, has been great on pit road this season so that might give him an edge.
• I also like Brandon Jones and Austin Cindric at similar prices. Cindric has been really strong all year and has finished in the Top 4 in four of the last six races. (Chastain wrecked him last week so he never had a chance there.) Cindric has led at least 30 laps, run at least 18 fastest laps, and scored 60+ DK points at both the 1.5 mile track races run so far this season. Jones offers more position difference value starting 12th. He's part of the Joe Gibbs Racing group that always has strong cars at the 1.5 mile tracks. He finished 6th at Las Vegas earlier this year and was running 6th at Charlotte before he got collected in a late race wreck that was totally out of his control. He can definitely finish in the Top 5 and has the potential to lead laps and run fastest laps as well.
• The Jeremy Clements, Michael Annett, Josh Williams trio from $8,900 to $8,500 is of some interest. Each has an upside of about 12th-15th with maybe Annett a spot or two higher. But I'm not entirely convinced any of them hits a 5x value because we can't reasonably expect any laps led or fastest laps from any of them.
• Myatt Snider, $8,100, 35th is interesting. He has run the last few weeks in the #21 car which is a Top 10 type car. In that car, he would be a lock at this starting spot. But, he's running this week in the #93 car, which is often a start and park run by Jeff Green. It shouldn't park this week with Snider in the car but, even running the whole race, you can't expect it to be anything more than an 18th-20th place car. It simply won't have the speed or reliability of the #21. And there's certainly an increased risk of a mechanical failure. He'd hit a 5x value if he finishes 19th. It's doable, but not a lock.
• Anthony Alfredo, $7,900, 24th. Alfredo is in the #21 car this weekend. As I just said, this is a Top 10 car and Alfredo has finished 6th and 14th in his two runs in this car this season. Even if he can repeat the lesser 14th place run, it hits 5x value. He should be highly owned.
• Tommy Joe Martins, $7,600, 33rd - Same story I've said before. (Scroll down to Bristol discussion for more.) Short version -- He's got the ability and the car has the speed, but it is breaking down almost every week, so probably best left for tournaments.

Looking at the sub-$7k range, there are plenty of possible targets:

• Joe Graf Jr, $6,600, 27th -- He's improved and has run in the Top 20 in each of the three races since the season resumed. He's scored between 34-55 DK points in those three races. We've talked about this SS Green Light team in the past. It's pretty reliable equipment and a solid mid-tier team. I don't love the driver skills here, but if he can just finish in the Top 20, he'll be hitting the 5x return on his reasonable salary.
• Kody Vanderwal, $6,200, 36th -- This one is tempting with the starting spot and coming off a 21st place finish at Bristol. But in his other three races this season, his best finish is 29th. And he struggled mightily at the similar Charlotte track just a few weeks ago, crashing out in the opening laps. I think his realistic upside is about 28th place and that doesn't even get you a 4x return. I'd rather go up to Graf or down to other options.
• Timmy Hill, $5,600, 29th -- Unlike some others on this list, we know Hill probably won't screw up. The equipment isn't fast or the most reliable, but he is in the #61 again, which is the best of the MBM group of cars. So we're hoping nothing breaks and Timmy finishes in the 20th-24th range. That's a very reasonable expectation.
• Colby Howard, $5,500, 34th -- Very similar thought process to Kody Vanderwal. Howard ran well last week at Bristol, but finished 34th, 27th and 37th in his other three races this year. The equipment is probably slightly better then Vanderwal, so I like Howard a bit more, but neither is someone I'd consider "safe" despite their starting spots.
• Garrett Smithley, $5,400, 22nd -- Smithley is a veteran Xfinity Series driver and is in the second SS Green Light car this weekend. In his one race with this team so far this season, he was running 20th with about 10 laps to go at Charlotte before the car had a mechanical failure. Last year at Atlanta, Smithley started 22nd and finished 17th in a comparable ride with JD Motorsports. He'd only need to move up 2-3 spots to hit a 5x value.
• B.J. McLeod, $5,200, 17th -- BJ has been really good since the season resumed, finishing 15th, 17th and 11th in this car. He's a veteran driver and the car is solid. If he merely finishes in the same spot he starts, he scores 27 DK points and hits a 5.2x return.
• Ronnie Bassett, $4,900, 32nd -- This is the more erratic of the Bassett brothers who drive for this team on occasion. On the plus side, he doesn't have to do much at all to hit value and his best race last year was a 15th place finish at Texas -- which has some similarities to Atlanta. On the down side, he's finished 30th or worse in half of the fourteen races he's done in the Xfinity Series the last two seasons.

Bets
I think it's a real possibility we see an upset winner this weekend:

• Cindric +700 to win
• Gragson +1200 to win
• Hemric +1300 to win
• Cindric -115 Chastain
• Haley -110 Herbst
• Gragson +105 B. Jones