atlanta xfinity

Saturday 1:30 EST Bets Added--

• Hemric -115 Gragson
• Hemric +100 Burton
  
• Jones -115 Allgaier
  
• Annett -110 Herbst
  

Like Trucks, I've got a pretty small cash game pool for this Xfinity race, so we'll go through most of them here.

Up top, it will probably be two of Austin Cindric, Martin Truex and Noah Gragson. I could see a case for using all three, but that would require some pretty extreme punt plays and there are a few cheaper guys who have a similar profile to Gragson. Playing all three could work, but I'll probably go a bit more balanced.

• Truex is the top guy here. He starts 18th, so has a lot of position difference upside. And this #54 car has shown really good speed with Ty Gibbs driving. I fully expect Truex to get everything out of the car as well, so he should drive to the front as the race goes on. It helps that he gets an early competition caution (Lap 20) to get his feet wet again in this car, make some adjustments and then get to it. I think he leads some laps and runs some fastest laps throughout the race to boost his point total here.
• Gragson also offers a lot of position difference upside starting 30th. It's potentially a Top 5 type car, but I feel more comfortable projecting something around 6th-8th. It's unlikely he gets up front to lead laps or run fastest laps, so we're looking at finishing position and position difference points only.
• Cindric should lead this race early and collect some fastest laps running out front. Whereas the early competition caution helps Truex, it hurts Cindric because it bunches the field back up and gives other strong cars (like Truex, Hemric, B. Jones, etc.) a chance to restart closer to the front. That said, the way Cindric is running right now, it's hard to not project him to lead a good chunk of laps in this race.

No matter how you cut it, you'll need at least one and maybe several cheap punt plays. The options aren't great, so let's focus on the few guys I'd be able to stomach using in a cash game.

• Cody Ware -- This car has run 13th, 24th and 13th the last three weeks. It has some decent speed and is finishing races. J.J. Yeley got the two 13th place finishes and I can't project Ware doing quite that well. I'd look at this as a fringe Top 20 car with an 18th-22nd range or so. That works great for the cheapest salary on the board.
• David Starr and Chad Finchum -- These two MBM drivers start 38th and 40th respectively. According to the MBM Facebook page, David Starr will be in the #61 with Whataburger sponsorship. I'm confident that car will not park -- although it still could have other issues. I'm less confident about Finchum.
• Matt Mills, Jess Little and Mason Massey -- In the past, I've been open to using B.J. McLeod cars because they had tended to race conservatively and finish races. This season has been a disaster though. In the last three weeks, these cars are only 2 for 9 finishing inside the Top 30. And they've got 4 finishes of 35th or worse in those three races. I'm going to avoid them altogether until they show at least some consistent ability to actually finish races. If I had to pick one, it would be Jess Little from this group, but I'd prefer to avoid them altogether.

And that leaves our mid-tier plays to fill in the gaps.

• Michael Annett --  Had an engine failure last week and finished 38th. At the twelve 1.5 mile tracks last year, he scored Top 10 finishes in ten of those races. He's a relatively safe bet for a Top 12 or so, which will give us some very strong position difference upside.
• Ryan Sieg -- Starts 35th and offers a little more upside than Annett but also a lot more risk. Compare Annett finishing in the Top 10 in 10 of 12 races at the 1.5 mile tracks last year to Sieg who finished in the Top 10 only five times. Sieg also had disaster finishes of 28th or worse in six of those twelve races. As we saw last week, this team sometimes uses unorthodox strategies to try to lead laps or score stage points and it often doesn't work out very well. He absolutely has Top 10 upside, but there is a good deal of risk that comes along with it.
• Alex Labbe -- Real solid play starting 37th for $7,300. He only needs a Top 20 to hit 5x and that's a very doable goal. He's a much better play than Ryan Vargas and Gray Gaulding in the same price range.
• Josh Berry -- Starts 22nd and should be able to get something like +10 position difference. But he's also made a few mistakes and carries some risk. If he can finish without incident, he should pay off.