atlanta xfinity

Saturday brings us 250 miles of Xfinity Series racing at Atlanta. Here are my top targets:

• Kyle Busch - Starts from the pole and should dominate this race. It could be his last Xfinity Series race and you know he wants to go out with a dominating win. Martin Truex was in this #54 car in the Spring race at Atlanta and absolutely crushed the field until a pit road speeding penalty later in the race. That's about the only thing that could possibly keep Kyle from crushing it here again.
• Justin Allgaier - He ultimately won the Atlanta Spring race and was the only other car that stood out as capable of possibly challenging Truex. Allgaier and his crew chief seem to really improve with practice and in later stages of the race. The fact that we already had a race here a few months ago is a big advantage for them. Allgaier is also one of the better Xfinity drivers on hot, slick tracks which we'll probably have on Saturday. He's finished 6th or better in the last four Atlanta races.
• Jeb Burton - This is a pricing play because he's too cheap. The Kaulig cars were very strong here in the Spring race. Jeb was running in the Top 5 but got caught up in a wreck during a late race restart. The 51 of Jeremy Clements restarted on the outside of the front row, spun his tires and stacked everyone up. Jeb was behind the 51 and tried to get around him and they just got together taking Jeb out of the race. He should be a Top 10 car and move up a couple of spots.
• Ty Dillon - Ty is in the #23 Our Motorsports car this weekend. This car has finished well at the 1.5 mile tracks when there is an experienced driver. Tyler Reddick ran at Miami and Las Vegas and finished 2nd and 12th, respectively. Ty ran at Charlotte and finished 7th. I think Ty can reasonably finish around 10th-12th and that he's a bit safer than Sam Mayer and Josh Berry.
  • Mayer is in the #8, which is a better car, but he still lacks experience at these faster, longer tracks.
  • Berry is in the #31 for Jordan Anderson which is generally old RCR equipment. He's done five races a 1.5 mile tracks in the #8 car (better equipment) and has only one Top 10 finish. 
• Noah Gragson - Noah got some damage early in the Spring Atlanta race and was never really at full speed. Based on what we saw in the Spring, this is most likely to be a Kyle Busch show with Justin Allgaier hanging around. If someone else is going to challenge for the lead, I think it would be Gragson. He seems to like these tracks that grind away the tires and have a higher groove. In his three Atlanta races he's finished 9th, 2nd and 4th.
• Jeremy Clements and Ryan Sieg - Both of these guys should be able to gain a few spots and are pretty cheap. They do carry some risk though because Sieg in particular likes to take strategy gambles and pit (or not) at odd times. Atlanta is a tough place to do that, but it wouldn't shock me for Sieg to do something crazy because he very likely needs a race win to make the playoffs. (For example, he could stay out at some point to save a set of tires hoping for a late race restart where no one else would have fresh tires.) Clements is currently the last driver in the playoffs on points, so he's likely to play it a bit more traditional and conservative -- which we'd prefer in cash games.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt and Colby Howard - JD Motorsports teammates in what should be Top 25 cars. If they can do that, they'll get you 10+ position difference and do very well for their lower salaries. In his three Atlanta races, Earnhardt finished 6th (with Joe Gibbs Racing) and 21st and 19th (with JDM). In his two Atlanta races, Howard finished 15th and 21st. We'll take any one of those on Saturday.
• Bayley Currey and Kyle Weatherman - I really try to avoid the Mike Harmon cars in cash games, but they might be too good to pass up here. Really cheap, can't go backwards and +15 position difference upside. These guys ran 24th and 28th in the Spring Atlanta race. It's just so hard to tell if these cars will be able to finish the race mechanically. 
• David Starr - Another sketchy punt option. Starr is in the #61 this weekend, which has been fairly reliable this season. Generally speaking, I'd prefer a Carl Long car over a Mike Harmon car, but the gap isn't too big. David starts 35th and should be able to move into the 20s as long as he doesn't have issues.

Bets

• Jeb Burton -115 Josh Berry
• Noah Gragson +115 Daniel Hemric