auto club cup series

We had another winning Fantasy NASCAR analysis for the Xfinity Series race led by Kyle Busch.  Ryan Sieg, Brandon Brown and Matt Mills were other guys we mentioned as lineup fits that did a great job.

On the Cup side, I'm always up front on this page, and I've got to tell you I have not spent as much time as I normally do watching practice this weekend.  This is an unpaid hobby of mine so other things have to take priority.  I still did a good chunk of research throughout the week and spent some time with the practice numbers, though, so wanted to give you all some thoughts about the race -- just with that word of caution.

• It's obvious to lock in Martin Truex in all formats.  He's good at these tracks to begin with and now comes with huge position difference upside starting 27th.
  
• Eric Jones, Alex Bowman and William Byron are three well priced options.
  
  • Jones was shown with the fastest average lap time over 15 laps in final practice.  He starts 18th.  
    
  • Bowman was shown with the 6th best average lap time over 15 laps in final practice just behind Brad Keselowski and in front of Joey Logano.  He starts 23rd.
  • Byron has not been as fast as these other two this weekend.  But he is the cheapest and his Hendrick teammates have shown excellent speed all weekend.  He starts 22nd and we'd be hoping for a finish in the 15th-18th range.
    
• Kyle Larson and Brad Keselowski seem like the best high end cash game options to me.  They both have excellent records here and have good position difference upside starting 15th and 13th respectively.
  
  • Larson won this race two years ago and finished 2nd last year.  He was 8th in 10-lap average in final practice -- but did not do a longer run to 15 laps or beyond like some others.
    
  • Keselowski has finished 1st, 9th, 2nd and 4th in the last four races here.   He was 3rd in 10 lap average, 5th in 15 lap average and 2nd in 20 lap average in final practice.  We don't often see Brad do long runs in practice, so the fact that he did such a long run is very encouraging.  And all three Penske cars showed great speed.  My only concern in a cash game setting with BK is that the team might be inclined to take more chances going for a win since they already have a win in hand and a place in the playoffs.  It's the right call for them, but adds risk for us.
    
  • There's a lot to like about guys starting up front like Joey Logano, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick.  My concern with them is that they all lead some number of laps and split the dominator points many ways.  If I had to pick one, it would be Logano.  In the end, I think Larson and BK have a safer floor and just as much upside.
• I don't like any of the punt plays this week.  You will probably need one though and I'd go with the cheapest credible option on the board.  To me that's Corey LaJoie starting in 30th. 
• Kurt Busch and Ryan Blaney are other guys I'm trying to work in.
  

Good luck!