Auto Club Preview

It's time for our first set of Auto Club preview notes.  What we're trying to do here is establish our driver target list based on past performance at the track and how the team is performing at this point in the season.  We'll update this list as we get more information from practice and qualifying:

• Kyle Larson -- $10,000 -- Auto Club is one of two high speed two mile ovals on the Nascar schedule.  Michigan is the other.  Kyle Larson has won the last four Cup races at this type of track.  He won (and led 110 of 202 laps) at Auto Club last year.  He also won both Michigan races last year and won the last Michigan race in 2016.  In my mind, Larson is the favorite coming into this weekend and he comes at a hefty $1,500 discount to Kevin Harvick.
• Kevin Harvick -- $11,500 -- The 4 team is obviously on a ridiculous run right now, but they weren't so great at the two mile tracks last year.  Harvick finished 13th at Auto Club and then 14th and 13th in the two Michigan races.  He did not lead any laps in those races.  However, two years ago, Harvick finished 2nd at the Auto Club race and led 142 of 205 laps.  And three years ago, he also finished 2nd at Auto Club and led 34 of 209 laps.  So, by now means am I counting him out this weekend.  I just don't think the price tag will be worth it at a track where Harvick's results have been up and down.
• Martin Truex -- $10,800 -- Last year, Truex finished 4th at Auto Club and led 73 of 202 laps.  He was also strong at Michigan, finishing 2nd and 6th and leading over 55 laps in both races.  He comes into this race with Top 5 finishes the last three weeks and I'm looking for him to run near the front again.  It will all come down to whether he shows the type of speed in practice that suggests he will be able to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• Chase Elliott -- $9,700 -- Chase has raced on the two mile tracks six times in his Cup career and finished in the Top 10 in all six of those races.  In 2017, he finished 10th at Auto Club and in 2016, he finished 6th.  But he only led a total of five laps in those races.  At Michigan, he's finished 2nd three times and 8th once.  He has led a total of 66 laps in his four Michigan races.  I expect Chase to have a good run Sunday but, like Truex, it comes down to whether he has the speed to lead laps and run fastest laps.
• Kyle Busch -- $10,300 -- During the four race stretch from 2011-2014, Kyle won twice at Auto Club and finished 2nd and 3rd in the other races.  He did not race in 2015 due to the injury he suffered at Daytona and then struggled somewhat in 2016 (25th) and 2017 (8th).  But, he's running very well right now -- with back-to-back 2nd place finishes at Las Vegas and Phoenix.  Last year, Kyle Larson finished 2nd at Las Vegas and Phoenix and then won at Auto Club.  Could a different Kyle repeat that trick this year?
• Clint Bowyer -- $8,000 -- Last year, in his first year with Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer started 17th and finished 3rd at Auto Club.  The SHR cars are running great right now and Bowyer may be a prime target this weekend at a good price.
• Jamie McMurray -- $7,200 -- For the last two years, Jamie has been consistent and strong at both the two mile tracks -- just like his teammate Kyle Larson.  Last year, Jamie finished 6th at Auto Club and then 5th and 9th at Michigan.  In 2016, he finished 10th at Auto Club and then 8th and 9th at Michigan.  So he has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at the two mile tracks and he comes with a great price tag.
• Daniel Suarez -- $7,000 -- In his only Cup series race at Auto Club, Suarez started 10th and finished 7th.  Given the price tag and quality team, he bears watching this weekend.
• We'll identify a few low end salary savers after qualifying.

Friday Night Update
Well that inspection nonsense for qualifying has really thrown things off.  Here's a few things to keep in mind based on starting positions:

• It's going to be real hard to roster a salary saver other than Ross Chastain and possibly Kasey Kahne.  Most of the usual suspects (like Michael McDowell and Matt DiBenedetto) are starting in a much higher starting spot this week.  So they're likely to lose positions during the race making them someone we don't want to roster at all.
• I'm going to watch the Hendrick cars closely in practice.  If one or more shows good long run speed, they might become good options with positive position difference potential.
• I continue to like McMurray and Suarez as moderate cost options.  Suarez officially starts 30th, but will actually go to the rear.  Even so, he should finish with a good chunk of positive position difference points.  McMurray starts 15th and I can't imagine he finishes worse than that unless he has some mechanical issue.  Recall that he has six consecutive Top 10 finishes at this type of track configuration.
• Also throw in Bowyer and Almirola, who start 26th and 27th, respectively. 
• Saturday practice is going to be critical.  We'll have a lot better idea where to go with the lineup tomorrow night.  This is a very jumbled up week so I feel there's going to be a lot more variety in lineups entered.  I like our chances in that situation.

Feel free to tweet any questions or comments @illinisjc