Auto Club Xfinity

SATURDAY UPDATE -- There are a ton of good position difference plays in the mid tier today. The question you need to ask is who do you trust? Guys like Myatt Snider, Anthony Alfredo and Jeffrey Earnhardt have a good floor and upside because of their starting spot. But do you trust them? Or would you rather take a little less scoring floor and upside with guys like Tommy Joe Martins, Kaz Grala, Jeb Burton and Brett Moffitt. This early in the season with such a short practice, I'm leaning toward the second group. I'll take the risk of fading that first group with eyes wide open that it might burn me because I trust the second group more. (Also, Timmy Hill is out and will not race. It's ridiculous that Graf bought out the ride after missing the race in qualifying.)

Same day qualifying makes it so hard to narrow down the target list in advance. I'll try to add a quick note after qualifying on Saturday. Here's the best I can do for now:

• Ty Gibbs - This #54 car was just amazing at intermediate tracks last year. Should be really fast and a potential dominator.
• Noah Gragson - Gragson is usually right up there on these worn out surfaces that have high tire wear.
• Justin Allgaier - If in doubt, it might make sense to fall back on a reliable veteran like Allgaier. He's got plenty of track experience here and won two races on high tire wear tracks last year (Atlanta and Darlington).
• Allmendinger, Hemric and Cassill - Generally speaking, the Kauling cars have not been great at high tire wear tracks. Cassill could be a good sub-$9k play depending on starting spot. I'd be surprised to see a dominator from this team.
• Cole Custer - Experienced here and a car put together by the Stewart Haas.
• Brandon Jones, Trevor Bayne and Sam Mayer - All at reasonable prices in top level cars. I'd jump on any of them if they drop at all in qualifying. (Jones led a bunch of laps and probably should have won the last Auto Club race two years ago.)
• Austin Hill - Just way too cheap in a RCR car. Even without the price difference, I'd prefer Hill over Sheldon Creed in what should be nearly identical race cars.
• Brett Moffitt down to Tommy Joe Martins - I would have no problem using any of the drivers in this price range depending on qualifying spot. They all should have reliable cars and are decent drivers. (Note: While it's a small sample size of six races, Brandon Brown was terrible at high tire wear tracks last year, finishing 24th or worse in all six races. On the flip side, Jeremy Clements finished 12th or better in all six of those races. Clements needs a strong finish here after getting wrecked out at Daytona and finishing near dead last.)
• Timmy Hill - He's in a Ryan Sieg car this week which is way better then his normal Xfinity ride at MBM. A primary target for me depending on starting spot.
• Mason Massey - Although it's always risky to dig this deep, Massey could be a decent punt play. The DGR cars tend to about 20th place cars and pretty reliable. He's really cheap so if finishing 20th-25th gives him position difference upside, then I could see going for it.

Bets

• Noah Gragson -130 Top 5 finish
• Cole Custer +250 Top 5 finish
• Timmy Hill +5000 Top 5 finish - not going to happen, but at this long of odds, worth a few bucks