bristol trucks

Love the night Truck series races and Bristol should be interesting this week.  It's a popular/prestigious race, so we've got numerous additional entries this week and they end up creating a pretty sizable list of mid-priced and low-priced targets.  I'll focus there:

• At the very bottom, Timmy Hill and JJ Yeley could have solid value.  Hill is running for the part-time family owned team.  These guys have tried to run the whole race when they enter.  They've had several mechanical failures, but also finished as high as 11th at Kentucky.  Yeley is running the second Reaume truck this week.  We've noted these guys often -- the trucks won't be fast but they plan to finish every race.  Assuming these truck qualify poorly (25th or worse), they will hit solid value simply by finishing the race at their dirt cheap price.
• Great targets in the $6k-$7k range:
  • Gus Dean -- I really don't know why his salary was slashed from over $7k to under $6k.  This is a solid team, so he's good to go if he qualifies further back.
  • Dylan Lupton will be in the #15 DGR truck Thursday and he's got two Top 10 finishes in two races with that team this year.
  • Brennan Poole has Top 15 finishes in his last four races, including a high of 2nd at Charlotte.
  • Raphael Lessard is under $7k in a Kyle Busch Motorsports truck.  No legitimate driver should be under $7k in a KBM truck.
  • Parker Klingerman is right at $7k.  He's finished 8th and 4th in the last two Bristol races with this same team. 
• More great targets in the $7k-$8k range:
  • ​John Hunter Nemechek's pricing is particularly egregious at $7,700.  He has run the trucks at Bristol the last four years and finished 3rd, 8th, 3rd and 3rd.  Last year, he added  104 laps led and 43 fastest laps.  His ownership will be sky high in all formats.  Oftentimes this truck is a start and park, but not when John Hunter is in it.
  • Chandler Smith is right behind him.  Very talented drive in a KBM truck.  No very talented driver in a KBM truck should be sub-$8k.  He's scored 60+ DK points in his only two truck races this year.
  • Ryan Sieg will be in lead Reaume truck.  Always like the Reaume trucks and this is the best driver in the truck.
  • Austin Wayne Self is just real solid of late.  I tweeted about his speed last week and his season high 5th place finish at Michigan made it two Top 6 finishes in the last three races.  He finished 13th at Bristol last year.
  • Timothy Peters -- Not really targeting him, but won't rule him out if he starts way back.  This team has only run a race or two the last few years, but has managed some decent finishes with veteran drivers like Peters and Regan Smith.
  • Sam Mayer is a new name for most, but he's a solid, rising racer in a solid GMS truck.  In the ARCA series this year, he's got five Top 5 finishes in six races.  And in the K&N East Series this year, he has two wins and seven Top 5 finishes in eight races.  At the K&N Bristol race in the Spring, he started from pole, led all 150 laps and won the race over numerous Truck and Xfinity names, including Mason Diaz, Raphael Lessard, Riley Herbst and Natalie Decker.  This is his first Truck Series race, however, so that's where the added risk comes in.
• No one really sticks out in the top tier.  I really like Ross Chastain, but over $12k is tough to swallow.  Sauter has been excellent at Bristol, but he's had a really tough year.  It will all come down to practice speeds and qualifying position up top.