bristol trucks

We've got 200 laps of Trucks Series action from Bristol on Thursday night. This is an interesting slate with two key decision points that I'll touch on below. I may not do much more on Bristol this weekend because of some other commitments the next few days. Good luck!

1. Do you take one or both of Ross Chastain and/or Parker Klingerman?

• Obviously, both are great position difference plays with very high floors and ceilings. Of the two, Chastain probably has more upside. He was very good in his Niece truck at Bristol last year and should be good again. The Niece trucks haven't been quite as good this year, so I'm not counting on laps led or a lot of fastest laps, but he has Top 5-8 potential.
• Klingerman has been solid at Bristol and solid this year with the exception of the Dover race where he had an engine failure. I'd expect something in the range of an 8th-12th place finish from him if he doesn't run into any problems.
• I'm leaning toward playing both in cash games. The floor is just so high and that's a huge plus at a track like Bristol where the races can sometimes turn chaotic. Just last year, we saw 10 incident cautions in this race and had 10 trucks out at the end of the race. The safest plays are often the best when the races can turn this crazy.
• If I had to fade one, it would probably be Chastain -- which is surprising. For one, he's over $1k more expensive with not a whole lot more upside unless you think he's going to lead laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. Also, his pit strategy and pit stops have been awful this year. They've pitted at the wrong time and had bad stops with penalties, loose wheels, etc. far too often for my liking. I'm not recommending the fade, just giving my thoughts for those who might not want to spend all that salary on two guys.
  
• A quick note on Sauter -- Bristol is one of his best tracks, but I just can't use or recommend him in a cash game setting. He's a tournament only play. 

2. Do I need a potential dominator like Brett Moffitt, Grant Enfinger or Zane Smith?

• As crazy as it sounds, I don't know that you do for two reasons--
• (1) It's pretty unlikely any one of these guys actually dominates to the point where they rack up so many laps led and fastest laps points that they bury any lineups without them. Truck races in general, and Bristol races in particular, tend to see several lap leaders with fastest laps spread among the best group of trucks. And I could see all three of these guys splitting time up front on Thursday night. It's also not crazy to think someone else -- like Ben Rhodes, Matt Crafton, Austin Hill -- leads a bunch of laps as well. So I don't think you absolutely need a dominator.
• (2) There's a pretty good group of solid, position difference guys in the $7k-$8k range that could combine to create a safer, more balanced lineup with just as much upside as a dominator lineup. Guys like Stewart Friesen, Raphael Lessard, Trevor Bayne, Tanner Gray, Derek Kraus and Carson Hocevar all have pretty safe floors and at least +5-8 position difference upside.

3. Are there any usable punts?

• Clay Greenfield is easily the best sub $5k choice. He shouldn't go backwards and should get you a Top 25 with a few + position difference points.
• In the past, J.J. Cobb has been a pretty reliable option to pass the trucks that wreck out, but she's not doing even that any more because she's having problems of her own. Barring a complete demolition derby, I really don't see anything better then a 30th place finish for her.
• Decker is just a mess at this track. YouTube "Decker Bristol" to see the low lights of her race here last year. Among other things, she got spun out by a NASCAR tow truck and her spotter basically gave up and walked off the spotter stand before the race ended. That's how bad it got.
• Bilicki and Bohn would be the next best choices a little up the salary scale.