bristol xfinity

Harder to do a full write-up on the Xfinity side this week because practice was not televised and, as usual, we won't know the starting order until a few hours before the race.  So I'm doing more of a shortened notes version that you can use to finish lineups after qualifying.

• I think you want both Kyles -- Larson and Busch.  In the last four races when there were several Cup regulars in there, these guys have dominated.  With all the laps led and fastest lap points out there this week -- 225 points in all -- you really need those dominators in your lineup (even cash games) this week.
  • In August 2017, Busch was in the race (Larson was not) and led 186 laps with 98 fastest laps.
  • In April 2017, Larson was in the race (Busch was not) and led 180 laps with 56 fastest laps.
  • In August 2016, both were in the race and they combined to lead 201 laps with 114 fastest laps.
  • In April 2016, both were in the race and they combined to lead 137 laps with 86 fastest laps.
• I'd be worried about trying to pick one Kyle because if you pick wrong and the other one goes off, that alone could sink your whole lineup.  And I think there's enough value plays (if they qualify where we want them to) to allow it to work.
• For argument sake, the other strategy would be to pick one Kyle and hope you pick right or that they split dominator points and you hit position difference with your other drivers.  This could work well if several Cup guys or good Xfin guys start further back.  At that point, picking one Kyle (probably Larson because he's cheaper and actually done better then KB in the races they both were in) and going for position difference in other slots might make sense.  One guy I would be really excited about if he qualifies poorly is Elliott Sadler.  He has four straight Top 5 finishes here and he would likely throw up a big number if he starts further back.  Justin Allgaier is another.
• Any way you go, you'll need a few value plays.  Here are the ones I am most interested in (favorites in bold, assuming favorable starting position):
  • Josh Williams $5,000 -- He's run Bristol two times in the #90 car.  In both races, he started 32nd and finished 22nd.  Not bad at a near minimum salary.  Below this salary, I can't really recommend anyone.  The best I could say is that it's unlikely McLeod or Currey do a start and park, so you could take a wild swing at either of them if you need to save a few hundred bucks to get someone else you want.
  • Chad Finchum $5,300 -- Should qualify near the back and we know this is not a start and park team like some others in this price range.
  • Alex Labbe $5,700 -- Only race here was in April, when he started 16th and finished 11th.  He has finished in the Top 20 in 4 of the last 6 races, including a season high 9th place last week at Mid Ohio.  Obviously there's no carryover from a road course, but it shows this team (despite being smaller and under funded) has some decent speed and momentum.
  • David Starr $5,800, Spencer Boyd $6,000, Joey Gase $6,300, Jeremy Clements $6,500 and Garrett Smithley $6,700 all could provide decent value depending on starting position.  I would avoid Vinnie Miller in this price range.
  • Brandon Jones $8,300 -- Under priced for a guy in JGR equipment.  And Jones is pretty good here.  He started and finished 6th, and led 106 laps, in the April race -- note there were no Cup guys in that race.
  • Everyone including and above Ross Chastain at $7,500 could provide value depending on starting position.  I would be weary of Ryan Reed though.  He's had incidents and finished 35th or worse in 3 of the last 4 Bristol races.

GL!  Hopefully we can make a few bucks Friday night to help fund Saturday night NASCAR and football.