bristol xfinity

[There's obviously a lot of serious and dangerous stuff happening all over right now. I'm not going to comment on any of it here because this just isn't the right place. NASCAR and sports in general are a release and distraction for many people and that's how I intend to keep it here.]

It was a really good result in the Cup Series race on Sunday. 3 for 3 on my H2H bets and my cash lineup came through despite Kevin Harvick disappointing. It was ugly and the chaos at the end really helped, but it was still a clean win. On to the Xfinity Series race on Monday night.

​If you thought the Cup Series race was crazy, just wait for this Xfinity race. Three of the last four Xfinity races at Bristol have been complete chaos:

• Fall 2019 -- 9 cautions with 16 of 38 cars finishing 25+ laps down
• Fall 2018 -- 8 cautions with 13 of 40 cars finishing 25+ laps down
• Spring 2018 -- 12 cautions with 14 of 40 cars finishing 25+ laps down

These are approaching super speedway levels of mayhem, so I'm looking to play a more conservative lineup on Monday night in cash games.

At the top, I think you want to think about using two of the three most expensive drivers -- Chase Briscoe, Justin Allgaier and AJ Allmendinger.

• Briscoe has been the class of the Xfinity field this year. And he ran very well at Bristol last year, finishing 2nd and 4th. He doesn't have the laps led/fastest laps history of Allgaier, but all signs point to him getting a good chunk of those dominator points on Monday. He offers bonus position difference upside starting 11th as well.
• Allgaier has been excellent here as well -- leading 100+ laps in both races last year. If he hadn't run into late race trouble in both races, his performance would be even more impressive. He also offers position difference upside starting 10th.
• Allmendinger starts 27th so offers a really high floor with +20 position difference upside. In a race that could get really wild, that's very valuable. I'd be surprised if he leads laps or runs a lot of fastest laps though. He doesn't have the dominator ceiling of Briscoe or Allgaier, but he has a higher floor then both of them.

Beyond those guys, I'm focused on veteran drivers or drivers with good teams starting from 20th on back. As for the guys starting 1st-9th, I'm really not interested in a cash game setting because I don't have a real good idea what to expect from them. In most cases they're either very young with limited Bristol experience or are not in the very top level equipment. I also think that Briscoe and/or Allgaier will be doing most of the dominating, which really limits everyone else's upside. So let's talk about a few guys who fit my more conservative profile:

• Alex Labbe - I really like him. Great floor starting 32nd with +20 position difference upside.
• Jeremy Clements - About the same as Labbe, but starting 29th. He's finished 4th, 13th and 13th in the last three races here and he's finished in the Top 18 in five of the last six here. But the one other race was a 40th place disaster, so there's no guaranty.
• Josh Williams - Rolls off 23rd and is a favorite mid-priced guy for a lot of people because of his consistency. He's finished between 10th - 16th in all five races since Daytona this season.
• Brandon Brown - This is a pretty good low floor play with Brown starting 21st. He's finished in the Top 13 in four of the five races since Daytona this year. He doesn't have great results in his three Bristol races, but he did finish 12th here last Fall. Very similar profile to Josh Williams.
• Tommy Joe Martins - He starts 35th, so offers a lot of upside. But he can be aggressive and risky because it's a very small team.
• Myatt Snider - $7k is still too cheap for the 21 Richard Childress car. Myatt starts 22nd and this should easily be Top 10 equipment, so we just need Myatt to keep it clean. He raced Bristol once previously in the Trucks Series and had a mechanical failure.
• Joe Graf - Don't love this, but he's starting 36th so really can only go up. And he's in pretty reliable equipment for SS Green Light. It's not top level stuff, but it's not at risk of falling apart either. The SS Green Light cars finished in the Top 16 in all four of their Bristol efforts last season. I don't believe Graf has any Bristol experience.
• Timmy Hill - Timmy's in the #61 this week, which tends to be the best car that MBM puts on the track because they have outside support for this car. In fact, Timmy finished 7th in this #61 car last Fall at Bristol. He was 17th in the Spring race in the #66 MBM car. I think he can finish inside the Top 20 again and I like his experience and bargain salary here. Even so, there's always a risk with MBM equipment. He should be very heavily owned.
• B.J. McLeod - Similar to Timmy Hill. B.J. is in the #6, which can finish about 20th most weeks.  BJ has finished in the Top 20 in three of the last four Bristol races and has a ton of experience here compared to the rest of the field.
• Ronnie Bassett - A lot of people played his brother last week for the cheap salary and it paid off. I don't like it here because he's starting 19th and that's too risky for this profile. His good, Top 20 finishes have been at longer tracks like Texas and Indianapolis. He did race at Bristol and somewhat similar Dover last season, but finished 33rd at Bristol and 25th at Dover. Hill and McLeod are much safer plays and I'd leave Bassett for tournaments situations where you need the extra savings.

Only a few bets I'm on right now. Haven't seen much posted:

• Chase Briscoe +275 to win
• Justin Haley +110 Riley Herbst