Charlotte

I'll be posting Xfinity on Friday night and Cup on Saturday night this weekend. Good luck.

Cup
Another weird practice and qualifying session leaves us with a lot of position difference plays starting further back then expected. Let's go through the guys I think will be most popular and talk about a few pivots--

• Kyle Larson - He's going to be a very tough fade here. He starts 36th, but still has race winning upside -- especially in an extra long 400 lap race. It would be no surprise to see him in the Top 10 in Stage 1 and near the lead in Stage 2 with 200+ laps still to go for dominator points. There's really nothing I can say against him other then that his ownership will be sky high. So, if you want to be different in tournaments, fade away.
• Corey LaJoie - Another tough fade since he's so cheap and starting dead last. He hits 5x by finishing 27th or better and he has a pretty good history at Charlotte, including a 19th place run last year. 
• Brad Keselowski - Starts 35th, so offers that low floor with +20 position difference upside. He's a good play, but not as clear of a must play to me because of his struggles at intermediate tracks this season. He has only one finish better than 20th and hasn't had a green flag speed rating better than 17th. He also wasn't fast in practice and had a slide and slow qualifying lap. That said, all he needs to do is finish 20th or better to exceed the 5x return we're always looking for. I think he can get there, but I wouldn't expect much more.
  • I think you could pivot off BK to a lower priced driver like Todd Gilliland, who can probably score within about 10-15 DK points of Brad for $1,600 cheaper. Aric Almirola is also an option at a similar salary as he's been much stronger at intermediate tracks with two 6th place finishes (Las Vegas and Auto Club) and an 11th place finish at Darlington - which used the same tire combination being used at Charlotte.
• Ricky Stenhouse - He starts 29th and has done his best work at intermediate tracks this season. He has four Top 10 finishes and finished outside the Top 10 only at Las Vegas (where he was 21st). He's also done it starting further back in the field (started 26th at Darlington and 36th at Kansas). He's always risky, though, so not a must have.
  • The pivots here would be to Eric Jones or up a bit to Kevin Harvick or Austin Dillon. I can't say I love any of those options because they all appear to have limited upside. I can't really see Harvick or Dillon cracking the Top 5, so you're hoping to squeeze into the Top 10 at best.
• Ross Chastain - Ross is in a great spot starting 22nd. He's got a safer floor and plenty of time to work towards the front. He's had the best green flag speed overall at the last four intermediate track races. His practice times also looked pretty good as he didn't seem to fall off as much as some others the more laps he ran.
  • Joey Logano is a decent pivot off Ross for a cheaper salary, but there's not nearly the same upside. Unlike Chastain, I just can't see Logano getting up front and leading laps unless he somehow gets a lucky break on a caution using a unique pit strategy. 
• Martin Truex - Love Truex here starting 14th. He's been very good at the 600 and was fastest in 5 and 10 lap average speed in practice.
  • I could also see using Denny Hamlin or Kyle Busch as all the Toyotas looked really strong in practice after a strong performance at the last intermediate track in Kansas. Chase Elliott is also in play as he's got a great history at Charlotte.

Xfinity
With the way qualifying played out, we're going to have a lot of lineups looking alike. I'm going to go over what should be the popular plays with a few pivots off them.

• Ty Gibbs and Riley Herbst - A lot of lineups will probably start with these two. Gibbs, in particular, has a huge ceiling starting from the back with a car we know will have race winning type speed. Herbst is probably still the way to go in cash games, but I wouldn't hesitate pivoting off him in other contests. While his results have been surprisingly consistent this year, he's still not someone I can fully trust.
• Brandon Brown and Myatt Snider - I think a lot of lineups will also feature these two at $7k and under starting 32nd and 33rd. They've both got +15 position difference upside with high floors starting so far back. Garrett Smithley is also a position difference option in the same price range. He's an experienced Xfinity Series driver who is in Alex Labbe's normal car this week because Labbe didn't have sponsorship for the entire year. I don't think he has quite the upside that Brown and Snider do. A pivot I do like in this range is Jeremy Clements. He starts a little further forward (23rd), but if he can come close to repeating his 11th place finish at Las Vegas earlier this year, he would be a huge bargain at only $6,400.
• Anthony Alfredo and Jeffrey Earnhardt - Two more major position difference plays in a similar price range. I do like Alfredo and he seems to be developing more consistency this year finishing in the Top 15 most weeks. Earnhardt can be a little hit or miss and the car failure in practice concerns me to some extent. But he does start dead last and can only move forward. That car does typically have Top 20 speed. The pivots off them would probably be Ryan Sieg or Austin Hill. Particularly Hill should have the speed to break the Top 10 if things go perfectly.