charlotte cup 1

Sunday

I'm interest in a few new bets I've seen posted. Truex odds are moving big time to where it's no longer a good play.

• Almirola +150 E. Jones
• Newman +160 Kenseth
• DiBenedetto +110 A. Dillon

Saturday Night Updates Are Below In Bold

I'll be adding more notes on Saturday, but here's where I'm at on Friday night:

Qualifying for Sunday's race will take place a few hours before the race begins, so I won't be able to provide a detailed analysis based on starting position, etc. And that's a huge factor in choosing the right plays in any format -- but especially cash games. So I'm going to talk first about approach and lineup concepts and then move on to some specific driver targets. Some of the guys I talk about here are going to end up being bad plays based on their starting spot, and others I don't mention might be great plays based on their starting spot. You'll need to pay attention Sunday afternoon and update your lineups accordingly.

According to Bob Pockrass, the inspection process will take place before qualifying, so we should not see any post-qualifying penalties causing cars to start in the back. Because of that, cars won't be able to change set ups after qualifying. They will race in the set up they qualify in. So it's very possible we see cars that do not qualify well moving forward during the race because they were set up for longer race runs at the expense of single lap speed during the qualifying run.

General Coke 600 Approach

• This is by far NASCAR's longest race. With 400 laps, we have a boatload of fastest laps and laps led points to be earned.
• In the last five Coke 600 races, we've seen two Dominators earn the bulk of those points and separate themselves by scoring about 20 points more than the rest of the field. In the past three Coke 600 races, the two Dominators have been the exact same drivers --  Martin Truex and Kyle Busch.
  • In 2019, Truex had 129.5 DK points, Busch had 86.75 DK points and the next closest was Chase Elliott at 68.75.
  • In 2018, it was Busch with 209.75 points, Truex with 73 points and the next closest was Jimmie Johnson with 60.
  • In 2017, Truex had 148.75, Busch had 91.25 and the next closest was Austin Dillon at 68.5.
• Martin Truex really, really stands out. In the last five Coke 600s, he has been the top DK scorer four times and the 2nd best DK scorer in the other race. His scores the last five years are 129.5, 73, 148.75, 197 and 107.75. Amazing. He does have a new crew chief this year, so that's something to consider, but he's still a top candidate to dominate once again. Also of note is that Truex has started this race 14th, 15th and 8th the last three years. So he does not need a Top 5 qualifying spot to be a laps led and fastest laps Dominator. The last time he did qualify well for this race was in 2016 when he was on the pole. He went on to lead 392 of the 400 laps and score 106 fastest laps for a total of 197 DK points.
• That said, the pole sitter is not necessarily a top Dominator. In the past five Coke 600s, the pole sitter has had a Top 5 DK score only two times. Coincidentally, those two times were in 2018 when Kyle Busch was on the pole and 2016 when Martin Truex was on the pole. In the three most recent Coke 600s when someone else had the pole position, that driver was not even in the Top 5 DK scorers in the race.

Top Tier (Over $10k) - more notes to follow on Saturday
Honestly, anyone in this tier is playable. It all depends on starting spot and the type of Dominator and/or position difference upside they offer. Here are my top choices without considering starting spot.

• Martin Truex -- I already made the clear case for Truex above. He's going to be near impossible to fade in this race. He seemed to get better at Darlington and had a really good car in cooler, nighttime conditions which we'll see a lot of in this race. 
• Kyle Busch -- His track history says you have to take him, but his recent performance says no way. It's shocking to see, but since Kyle led 14 laps at Daytona, he has not led a single lap the rest of the season. That's five straight races without a lap led. And, during those five races, he's only run a total of 27 fastest laps. So that's a grand total of 13.5 DK points in a five race span. Now, some of this might have to do with poor starting spots. The two times he would have started up front (1st at Vegas and 4th at Darlington) he got hit with penalties and had to start in the rear. Even so, we expect to see Kyle up front leading laps and running fastest laps almost every week. And we need that to win at Charlotte. That's not to say you shouldn't use him -- only that I've got a high level of concern about whether he can match his past performance at this track.
• Kevin Harvick -- Kevin and his team have done a really good job of getting him out front and running very strong in clean air. He has struggled somewhat when he gets shuffled back and has to move through the field. But there's no doubt this is one of the strongest teams right now. But Charlotte has not been a great track for Kevin over the last five years. He does have one dominating performance in Fall 2017, when he led 149 laps, had 86 fastest laps and scored 121.25 DK points. His last three Coke 600 performances have been disappointing though. So this is like the reverse of Kyle Busch. Kyle has great track history but not recent performance this season. Kevin has great recent performance this season but only decent track history. 

Upper Mid Tier ($8-10k) - more notes to follow on Saturday
Like the Top Tier, anyone in this tier is playable. It all depends on starting spot and the type of Dominator and/or position difference upside they offer. Here are my top choices without considering starting spot.

• Chase Elliott -- He's badly under priced at under $10k. Chase has been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks of late. He easily could have won Vegas and was the fastest car there before he got a flat tire and other damage. He also easily could have won Darlington 2 on Wednesday night until he was wrecked by Kyle Busch. In his other three races this year, he's finished 4th, 7th and 4th. So we're under $10k for a guy who was performing well enough to have four Top 5s and perhaps multiple wins. Chase was 4th in this race last year, led laps 43 laps and ran 20 fastest laps for a total of 68.75 DK points.
• Alex Bowman -- Bowman has also been very strong at the 1.5 mile tracks dating back to last year. He dominated the race earlier this year at California and arguably had the best car at Darlington last Sunday. He's had very strong results in the last two Coke 600 races, with 9th and 7th place finishes -- although he didn't lead many laps or run many fastest laps in those races. Before qualifying, I like Elliott better, but I also think Bowman is under priced at $9,400.   
• Jimmie Johnson -- He's been really consistent at Charlotte and the 600. He's finished 5th and 8th in this race the last two years. In 2017, he had led a bunch of laps heading to the end of the race but came up a few laps short of winning the race on a fuel saving strategy. (That was the race Austin Dillon won running in the same fuel save mode.) Jimmie's also run well this year. He obviously had a good car last Sunday at Darlington when he wrecked from the lead. He has three other Top 8 finishes already this season. My only concern is whether he can lead laps or run enough fastest laps to pay off a $9k+ salary. 
• Ryan Blaney -- He's just too cheap. He hasn't been real good at Charlotte and he struggled at Darlington, but this is a very good driver with a championship level team in Penske. He should not be all the way down at $8,100. And we can't forget that he had really, really good race cars at Las Vegas and California earlier this year. He led a total of 73 laps and ran 56 fastest laps in those two races combined.

Lower Mid Tier ($6-8k)

• Ryan Newman might end up really under priced at $6,500. I think you can safely project a finish in the 18th-20th range. My only concern is how hard he makes himself to pass. Over 600 miles, it can be enough to really upset some people and cause problems.
• Chris Buescher at $6,700 also looks good, although his Darlington performance this week raises some red flags. He has a remarkably consistent record over the last year at 1.5 mile tracks, though, and I think it's most likely he returns to that form at a more conventional track like Charlotte. He finished 6th in The 600 last year, but expect something more in the 18th-20th range. He has finished in the Top 20 in four of the last five 600s.
• Matt DiBenedetto at $7,200 is in play. It all depends on starting spot. I'd hope for a 12th-15th place finish. So if he's starting outside the Top 20, it would become real tempting.
• Aric Almirola at $7,500 looks good too. He's finished 13th and 11th here the last two years. It's rare to get a guy from a top team like SHR for under $8k. All depends on the starting spot.
• Matt Kenseth is might end up too expensive to make sense. But, if he's starting farther back, I could see using him because of his experience in this marathon race and the fact that he usually doesn't do stupid stuff. But, given his time away from racing, I am concerned about the ability of his team to keep up with the massive changes to the track that we'll see over the 600 miles.
• Guys like Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Cole Custer and John Hunter Nemechek are all possible -- but only if starting way back. They are all just too risky for my liking without that.

Salary Saver Tier (Under $6K)

• I'm looking at the Bubba Wallace, Ty Dillon and Michael McDowell tier here from $5,900-$5,600. They've all been pretty solid this year and I'd probably rank them in that order as far as how comfortable I would be to use them. Base this play off the starting spots.
• You could possibly slide down to LaJoie at $5,400, but the performance has been off a bit so far this year. He's had some success in The 600, though, including a really impressive 12th place finish with the same team last year. But don't expect anything better then about a 28th place finish.

Bets
Only one bet so far. Not a lot posted yet on the sites I use.

• Hamlin +327 to win Group B (Bowman, Logano, Keselowski and Hamlin)

I'm not loving many bets this week. The head to heads I've seen posted seem pretty fairly priced to me. I do see Truex as a slight underdog in some matchups (like vs. Kyle Busch), so I'm monitoring those and may jump.