charlotte cup 2

Wednesday Afternoon: Added a few bets at the very bottom

It was quite obvious that Chase Elliott, Martin Truex and Alex Bowman had the three best cars Sunday night at Charlotte. They ranked 1, 2, 3 in green flag speed during the race -- and they are also the top three on the green flag speed chart for the entire season. For Charlotte Part Two on Wednesday night, you can get Elliott and Truex for under $10k on Draft Kings and Bowman for under $9k. Elliott and Truex both bring +15 position difference and race winning/Dominator upside. And Bowman is a strong candidate to lead early laps as he'll be starting in the clean air of the front row.

Or you can go the straight position difference upside route with guys like Jimmie Johnson (starting 40th), Clint Bowyer (39th) and Denny Hamlin (29th). All of these guys have +25 position difference upside. However, we saw how hard it was to run in the dirty air back in the field on Sunday night, so I'm not sure they have much chance of getting to the front at any point in this much shorter race. And they each cost over $11k. To be sure, the floor is higher, but the realistic ceiling is capped as well. I do think Johnson will have very heavy ownership and, barring an incident, he's a lock for 50 points with an upside in the low 70s. It's certainly risky to fade that kind of profile and I can't fault anyone for just going with it in a cash game setting. 

One problem I'm running into with Johnson/Bowyer/Hamlin combinations is how hard it is to complete the roster. There really aren't any good salary savers on this slate. Under $7k, we've got the Ty Dillon, Daniel Suarez, Ryan Preece trio from $6,000 - $6,300. All of them should be able to hold at or near their starting spot, but they are not getting you anything more then maybe a +1 or +2 position difference. And the downside is real as all of them have consistency and/or reliability concerns. Aside from them, we're down to true punt plays like Quin Houff or Joey Gase. I've used guys like this on rare occasion in cash games, but it's come back to bite me more often then not.

I'm still studying things but, as of now, I like the idea of building a more balanced lineup and not trying to cram in the highest price position difference guys.

Bets
A few I've played so far--

• Byron +2000 to win
• Blaney +1700 to win
• Blaney EV Logano 
• Blaney EV Hamlin

Added Wednesday afternoon--

• Blaney -105 Johnson 
• Blaney +225 Top 5
• Ty Dillion +270 to win Group F - Ty, Preece, McDowell, Bubba
• Jimmie Johnson -175 will NOT finish in the Top 5
• Almirola -110 Kenseth