charlotte weekend #1

Saturday Update:  Noted on Twitter that it was a very profitable Truck race.  Actually my best return of the season so far.  I won't have anything for the Open or All Star Race tonight.  I'm spending the time working on Xfinity and the Coca Cola 600 next Saturday and Sunday.

Friday Afternoon Update:  (1) Josh Reaume was way off the pace in practice.  Like a full second slower then the next worst truck.  Use as a last resort only.  (2) Brennan Poole showed good speed and was one of only three trucks to do a 10 lap run in final practice.  That run was faster then Sheldon Creed's 10 lap run and not too far off Ben Rhodes.  He has also finished 13th and 9th in two of the three 1.5 mile tracks he's run at this year.  He's not dirt cheap ($7,300), so I don't know if he'll fit a cash game strategy, but he's on the radar in all formats and a good target if you do the largest $8 tournament because many will focus on more popular names in that price range.  (3) Sheldon Creed showed speed once again.  Now can he actually finish a race?  He's too risky for me in cash, but another tournament option.

I'll just be doing this one update this weekend for Friday's Truck Series race.  I won't be posting anything for Saturday's Cup Series All Star Race.

The big question for the Truck race is whether to use Kyle Busch.  He's priced way up at $16,000, but he's been worth it in all four Truck races he's entered this season.  He's won all four of those races and led at least 90 laps in each race.  He's thrown in a good number of fastest laps for good measure.  In the four races this year, he's scored 91, 98, 128 and 81 DK points.  The 128 is inflated because it was at Martinsville where they ran 250 laps -- allowing him to really rack up the laps led and fastest lap points.  The other three races are more relevant to this week because they were at 1.5 mile tracks with a more similar number of laps run -- 130-150 laps.  I think it's reasonable to use 85-90 DK points as a baseline for Kyle this week.

Looking at some of the other top tier drivers in the three 1.5 mile track races Kyle has been in this year, they are generally scoring about 40-50 DK points.  Sauter was 58, 39 and 50.  Moffitt was 40, 54 and 23.  Chastain 54, 41 and 43.  Friesen 21, 56 and 58.  Crafton 29, 58 and 47.  Enfinger 45, 51 and 45.

Doing some simple math, if you pair Kyle with a back marker punt like Jennifer Jo Cobb, you would have combined for exactly 117 points in all three races.  Odd coincidence to be sure.  By comparison, if you pair the best two of the other top tier drivers, you would have combined for 112, 112 and 108 points.  So in every situation Kyle and a punt beat the two best nearest competitors.  The reason is that when Kyle dominates these races, it is virtually complete and utter domination.  He quite literally is leading 75%+ of the laps and hitting about 50% of the fastest laps.  It leaves so few of those extra points for the rest of the field that the only way to catch him would be with massive position difference gains.  And we rarely see that in Truck races because the trucks starting in back are simply inferior equipment, cannot keep up with the pack and have a very limited upside.

One caveat is that Kyle and the punt probably cost a little more than the two best nearest competitors.  So, if you went the non-Kyle route you'd have a bit more to spend on the rest of your roster -- but not by too much.

There's risk in the Kyle strategy.  Since the race is only 200 miles, you're looking at about 130 laps which means Kyle needs to lead most of the laps and hit a bunch of fastest laps.  There is little margin for error.  While Kyle has hit those benchmarks in all his races this year, he hasn't been so consistent at Charlotte in years past.  He's done the Charlotte Truck race the last three years and only one time has he hit the milestones we would need.  In 2017, he won, led 90 laps and had 44 fastest laps.  That would hit the number we need.  But, in 2016, he led only 27 laps and hit 15 fastest laps.  And last year, in 2018, he didn't lead at all and hit only 20 fastest laps.

But, if you go the non-Kyle route, the risk is you don't pick the optimal combination of next best drivers.  When we compared the numbers above, we assumed you picked the two highest scorers among the next best tier.  But, if you hit the two worst scorers, you would have had only 50, 80 and 66 points combined between the two of them.  There's almost no way you're making up 40+ points on the Kyle lineup with any minimal salary savings you might have for the other four spots.  If you look at the mid-point of the next best tier, you're combining for about 90-100 points, which still leaves you 20 points or so behind the Kyle and punt team.

So my plan going into Friday is to use Kyle and a punt (probably Cobb) and look for value and position difference potential.  I do think we have some decent value plays pending their starting spot.  Here's who I'll be focusing on:

• Josh Reaume and Josh Bilicki -- Teammates should start far back in the field.  They will lack speed but could pay off if they can just keep running the whole race and beat the 7-8 trucks that typically retire.
• Jennifer Jo Cobb -- I keep mentioning her.  She's near minimum price and usually comes in with mid-20s in DK points.  Her lowest scoring race is 19 points and she will have virtually no downside since she'll start near the back.
• The entire group in the $6,100-$6,700 range is in play.  Of note there:
  • Cory Roper has shown well at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  At Atlanta, he started 28th but finished 16th with 40 DK points.  In Texas, he started 29th and finished 12th for 49 DK points.  At Las Vegas, he qualified 5th, but had issues during the race and finished 24th.  Obviously, only use him if he qualifies deep into the 20s.
  • Jordan Anderson has scored between 20-26 DK points in 6 of 7 races this season.  He ran well last week, starting 16th and finished 13th for his season best 34 DK points.
• Johnny Sauter has been excellent at Charlotte the last three years -- all races with Kyle Busch in the field.  He finished 3rd in 2016, 2nd in 2017 and started from pole and won the race last year.  He also led 71 laps and hit 24 fastest laps last year.  I would expect him to come back strong after having a mechanical issue last week.
• I still think Grant Enfinger is under priced at $9,100.  He's been the most consistent driver all season.  He has four Top 5 finishes and would have had another last week but for getting bumped late by Brett Moffitt fighting for position in the Top 3.  He's also scored 45+ DK points in all but one race this season.
• Speaking of Moffitt, I will say he was running a bunch of fastest laps near the end of the race last week and was moving up until he bumped Enfinger trying to get by him.  I don't know if they found something or the track just came to their set up.  Will be keeping an eye on him in practice.  Remember, he is now with the same GMS Racing team that Johnny Sauter had all that success with last year at Charlotte.

One final note.  A scenario where I will pivot away from Kyle is if we have a few good trucks qualify further back in the field.  This doesn't normally happen in the Truck Series, but it's a scenario to be prepared for just in case.