Charlotte Weekend #2

Here are some notes for Saturday's XFinity race following two practices on Thursday.

• Jeb Burton is laughably under priced at $6,800.  He's in the #8 JR Motorsports car which is top end equipment.  The #8 car has had six different drivers this season, but has still finished in the Top 10 in 7 of 10 races.  And it has only one finish lower than 13th.  In the three 1.5 mile track races this season, the #8 car has finished in the Top 5 twice.  One of those Top 5 finishes was at Texas where Jeb was in the car.  He started 6th and finished 5th for 41 DK points.  Regardless of driver, and no disrespect to these guys, but it's just dumb for this car to be priced less than guys like Ray Black Jr, Jeremy Clements and David Starr.
• The three big guns (Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell and Cole Custer) all looked strong in practice.  I'd be shocked if the race winner and highest DK point scorer does not come from this group of three.
  • Reddick led both practice sessions in single lap speed.  In final practice, he also led all drivers in 5 lap, 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap average.  At the three 1.5 mile track races this season, Reddick has two Top 5 finishes, has led laps and scored at least 20 fastest laps in each race, and averaged 62 DK points (with a low of 58 and a high of 65, so very consistent).
  • Bell was 2nd in single lap time and 10 lap average in final practice.  He ran over an elevated manhole cover in first practice and damaged the splitter, so that took away from his track time there.  It was fully repaired and shouldn't cause any issues on Saturday.  Bell dominated two of the three 1.5 mile track races this year.  In Atlanta, he won, led 142 laps, and scored 108 DK points.  In Texas, he finished 3rd, but led 127 laps, and scored 85 DK points.  At the other 1.5 mile track race in Las Vegas, he led only 3 laps, but had 44 fastest laps and 44 DK points.  So I guess you could say he hasn't been as consistent as Reddick at these tracks, but that's because he has two blow ups and week winning performance in those races.  I do like Reddick the most because the extremely hot conditions Saturday afternoon should lead to a slick race track which suits his style.  But Bell is close behind and it would be no surprise to see him dominate as well.  
  • Custer was 2nd in single lap time in the first practice and 4th in single lap time in final practice.  His 10 lap average in final practice was third -- right behind Reddick and Bell.  In the first two 1.5 mile track races this year, Custer scored 49 and 46 DK points.  He got caught up in a wreck at Texas and finished 34th for -13 DK points in the most recent 1.5 mile track race.  Custer sounded like he really liked the way his car felt throughout practice.  But he hasn't shown quite the same level of consistency or domination at the 1.5 mile tracks as compared to Reddick and Bell.  So I'd rank him 3rd on this list.
  • Given the value in Burton and others we mention below, it's possible you can use all three of these guys in a lineup together.  I would think you'll need at least two of them and I've got them ranked here in the order I see them heading into qualifying in Saturday.
• None of the mid-level guys are sticking out to me.  I think the Big Three are going to dominate the laps led and fastest laps.  So the only way a mid-level guy can do a lot of damage is if they start further back in the field and can get you a lot of + position difference points. 
  • Of the mid-level guys, Justin Haley, Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric looked best in practice.
  • Of note, Cindric has finished in the Top 6 in 6 of the last 7 races.  BUT, his worst three finishes of the season 10th, 22nd and 11th came at the three 1.5 mile track races.
  • Briscoe has finished in the Top 8 in each of the last 8 races.  He's finished 15th, 8th and 4th at the three 1.5 mile track races this season.
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt really struggled on Thursday.  He was 18th in first practice and 17th in final practice.  Both times he was about a full second per lap off the leader's pace.  That should not be the case for a top end Joe Gibbs Racing car.  He also did not make even a 10 lap run at any point in practice -- which is an indicator of just how uncomfortable he was in the car.  Conditions will be much hotter and slicker Saturday so I suspect this team is just hoping their set-up is the right play for those conditions.  I'll probably be staying away.
• On the low end, there's a few guys I'll be targeting pending their starting spot.
  • Josh Williams has finished 21st, 16th and 14th at the three 1.5 mile track races this season.  He's got sponsorship and ran a good number of laps in practice, so should be solid.
  • Timmy Hill has had some decent runs in the #66 car this season -- including a season high 16th place finish in the last race at Dover.  This car typically tries to run the full race and is not generally a start and park.
  • Chad Finchum has also had some decent runs in the #42 car this season and it, too, typically tries to run the whole race.  For Hill and Finchum, look for finishes in the 22nd-28th range.  So you can use them with confidence if they qualify from about 30th on back.
  • Dillon Bassett in the #90 had decent speed in practice.  He did a longer run in final practice and was the top speed on that chart among drivers not with a top team.  He was in this car one previous time this season and grabbed a 15th place finish at Richmond for 51 DK points.  He's easily the best of the dirt cheap options under $5K.