chicago

I mentioned last week, I won't have full coverage this weekend because of personal obligations.  This will be my only write-up for Chicago.  I've focused on the Trucks and Xfinity Series races because that information is harder to come by from other sources.

CUP 

• The one thing I'll say about the Cup race is that it's an impound race.  We had a few of these earlier this year.  There is no tech inspection before qualifying.  Tech will be done Sunday morning and, if a car fails once, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot moves to the rear of the field.  I think the last race we had this was Kansas and we had numerous real good cars (Truex, Logano, Elliott) go to the back and then everyone had them in their cash lineups.  I can see a similar scenario playing out this weekend, so just pay careful attention Sunday before the race.  Follow Bob Pockrass on Twitter as he usually is at the track watching inspection and tweeting real time what cars pass or fail tech. 

TRUCKS

• Let's start by identifying the guys that will likely be start and park efforts.  These guys likely will not even try to run the whole race and I would not plan on using any of them.
  • Joey Gase #0, Camden Murphy #8 and Joe Nemechek #87
• Next, the salary savers.  These are guys that should try to run the full race and have the potential to outperform their salary.
  • Timmy Hill #56/$6,400 -- This is a family owned truck that Timmy and brother Tyler have run a few times this year.  Timmy has been in the truck twice -- finishing 16th at Charlotte and 21st at Martinsville.  Timmy has also run a few races for Joe Nemechek's #87 and Copp's #63 start and park teams.  In those races, he's finished 31st, 26th and 28th.  So don't get thrown off by those poor finishes.  The Hill family team is totally different and attempts to run the full race -- albeit without top level speed or equipment.  If Hill runs a full race, he profiles as a 16th-20th place truck and I'd easily take him over drivers like Jennifer Jo Cobb and Norm Benning who are priced around him.
  • Josh Bilicki #33/$5,700 -- Josh is entered in the #33, which is a sponsored, full time Reaume Brothers team.  This team also generally tries to run the full race and I'd expect them to do so this week since they have outside sponsorship.  Josh was in the Reaume Bros. #34 truck at Kansas a few weeks back and brought home an 18th place finish with +7 position difference.  At $5,700, he's easily my favorite salary punt play.  I'd look for him to finish around 18th-20th as he did at Kansas.
  • Mason Massey #32, Jesse Iwugi #34 and Spencer Davis #44 are others I will watch but fall below Hill and Bilicki coming into Friday.  All three are with teams that I'd expect to try to run the full race.
    • Massey and Iwugi are both with Reaume Bros.  Iwugi had a season high 17th place run at Texas earlier this season.  And Massey ran his first Truck race last week, finishing 22nd.  I project them as 18th-24th place trucks.  (Massey doesn't appear in the player pool yet on DK, but he's on the Entry List.)
    • Davis is in the second Niece Motorsports team and is teammates with Ross Chastain this weekend.  It's his first Truck series race this year, but he did five races last year in a Kyle Busch Motorsports truck.  He should have decent equipment and he's got some talent.  If all goes well, this could be a 14th-18th place truck.
  • I'll also keep my eye on B.J. McLeod in the #1.  The concern is that this team seems like a start and park and their best finish this year is 28th.  The only reason I'll be watching is that it seems odd for McLeod to take this ride simply to park the truck.  If they run a decent amount of laps in practice it might make him worth the risk at minimum price -- but probably only in tournaments unless we hear confirmation that it is a full race effort.
• A couple of mid-range salary efforts are on my target list as well:
  • Tyler Ankrum #17/$7,900 -- Ankrum is back in the #17 DGR Crosley truck this week after two start and park entries in Joe Nemechek's truck.  Ankrum has been really good in the #17 this year -- with a 9th, 6th and 3rd place finish among his efforts.  At the 1.5 mile tracks this year, he was 6th at Texas, 11th at Kansas and 27th at Charlotte.
  • Anthony Alfredo #15/$7,500 -- Ankrum's DGR teammate Alfredo is another good option.  He's got three straight Top 12 finishes -- including an 8th place finish at Charlotte and a 12th place finish at Texas in the last two 1.5 mile track races.
• Top tier targets
  • On the more affordable side, I really like the pricing and potential for Sheldon Creed and Brandon Jones.
    • At the beginning of the year, Creed had really good speed, but was out of control and getting in wrecks every week.  He's now calmed down, is still showing good speed, and is keeping the truck pointed the right direction.  In the last two races, he's finished 6th at Texas and 7th at Iowa.  Before that he was 12th at Charlotte.  He's definitely back on my cash game playable list.
    • Brandon Jones will be in the #51 with The Man Rudy Fugle as crew chief.  Jones was in this truck earlier this year and finished 13th at Dover and 5th at Kansas.  Greg Biffle won the last 1.5 mile track race running with this very same team.  I expect a Top 10 finish and he has race winning potential for only $8,900.
  • ​On the top end, I like Ross Chastain again.  He's finished in the Top 10 in all six 1.5 mile track races this season.  He's got great speed and is on a roll right now.
  • I also like the ThorSport group:
    • Crafton has finished in the Top 6 in the last five 1.5 mile track races
    • Enfinger has five Top 10 finishes and one 11th place finish in the 1.5 mile track races this season.  In two of the last three 1.5 mile races, he's led 40+ laps.
    • Rhodes has three Top 5 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year and he may very well have won the last 1.5 mile race at Texas if he didn't have a transmission failure while leading that race.
    • The only ThorSport guy to struggle so far has been Johnny Sauter.  He's got three straight finishes outside the Top 10 on the 1.5 mile tracks.  And he's led a grand total of only 20 laps on these tracks this season.
  • ​I've been saying it every week, but I again like Austin Hill better then most.  He's finished 4th, 6th and 8th in the last three 1.5 mile track races and has scored 45+ DK points in all three of those races.  He's more of a contrarian tournament play then cash game play since his ownership will probably be sub-10%.

XFINITY

• High end targets:
  • Really like Tyler Reddick for $10,500.  He was dominant at the last 1.5 mile track in Charlotte, leading 110 laps.  You'll remember that race was really hot and sunny, just like it's expected to be Saturday in Chicago.  Plus, this track with a high, fast lane fits right into Reddick's style.  Notwithstanding Joey Logano being in the field, I see Reddick as the top Dominator heading into the weekend.
  • I like Christopher Bell as a second Dominator.  He's been a beast at the 1.5 mile tracks too.  He's led over 100 laps twice (Atlanta and Texas) and he's also had 25+ fastest laps in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year.
• Mid-range targets:
  • Justin Haley -- Top 10 at all five 1.5 mile track races this year.
  • Zane Smith -- This is a top end car that has finished in the Top 8 in four of the five 1.5 mile track races this year.  Zane has four consecutive strong finishes in this car 11th at Bristol, 6th at Richmond, 9th at Dover and 5th at Iowa.
  • Ross Chastain -- He is in a second Kaulig Racing car.  This should be faster then the #4 car he has raced most frequently this year in the Xfinity Series.  Kaulig teammate Haley has all Top 10 finishes at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.
  • Jeffrey Earnhardt -- He's in the #81 car for the second time this season.  This is very much a part time effort that has only run these two races with Earnhardt so far this season.  In the first effort for the #81 team, Earnhardt started 14th and finished 8th at Texas.
  • Riley Herbst -- This is on the risky side for sure and he'd have to qualify poorly for me to use him in cash.  But $7,200 is just too cheap for a top end Joe Gibbs car no matter who is driving it.  He does have two Top 10 finishes in four starts in this car between this year and last.  But he does seem to struggle on the longer tracks.  The two Top 10s are at Richmond and Iowa.
• Cheaper targets:
  • Landon Cassill -- He's in the #4 car which was driven by Ross Chastain for most of the season.  Most weeks, this has been about a 12th-16th place car and I expect Landon to keep it in that range.  He ran this car to a 9th place finish earlier this season at Talladega,  Landon's two other Xfinity races this year were in Morgan Shepherd's start and park car, so don't get thrown off by those if you pull up his race history for this year.  Notably, Landon showed excellent speed both of those weeks despite having inferior equipment.  He qualified that car 13th and 16th at Charlotte and Michigan, respectively.
  • Shane Lee -- This is week number two for the new #28 team.  Last week at Iowa, Shane started 17th and finished 18th.  Shane ran 13 races last year in the Richard Childress #3 Xfinity car.  On average, he was about a 14th-18th place car in those races.  I'd project this car in the 16th-20th range.
  • Ray Black Jr is a bit under priced at $6,100 and better than those around him like Vinnie Miller.  At the 1.5 mile tracks this season, Black has finished inside the Top 18 in 3 of 5 races.  At the most recent 1.5 mile race, he ran 16th at Charlotte.
  • Tommy Joe Martins at $5,400 is an option.  Of late, this #99 car has been finishing about 18th-22nd on average.
  • Finally, I'll be watching Ronnie Bassett Jr ($4,800) and Josh Bilicki ($4,900).
    • Bassett is in the second DGM car and we know this team tries to run the full race.  In his only race on a 1.5 mile track this year, Bassett brought this car home 15th with +8 position difference at Texas.
      
    • Bilicki is normally a start and park but he got sponsorship this weekend for Trucks and the Xfinity Series.  There's a reasonable chance he runs the full race.  And when he did that a few weeks ago at Michigan, he finished 21st.  Probably too risky for cash, but bears watching. 
      
• Avoid List:
  • Likely start and parks -- Joe Nemechek #13, Jeff Green #38, Camden Murphy #74, Morgan Shepherd #89
  • I'm also very down on the MBM group as a whole.  No offense to the drivers, but this team on whole has way too many mechanical issues and start and park scenarios to make me comfortable using them in cash.  I think Timmy Hill, Chad Finchum and Joey Gase are decent drivers, but there are likely to be better and more reliable options in a comparable salary range.