coca cola 600

Here are some lineup strategy and driver target notes to help you build winning lineups for the Coca Cola 600.  As always, I'm focusing more on a cash game, 50/50 or double up contest.

• First, be aware there is tech inspection Sunday before the race.  Unlike some recent "impound races," if a car fails tech on Sunday, it will keep it's official starting position for Fantasy Nascar purposes, but it will have to start at the rear of the field.  You will almost certainly not want to use a car starting from the rear unless it's a punt play with an official starting position already in the 30s.
• Starting on the cheap end of things, for the combination of price and likely performance, I like Bubba Wallace and Corey LaJoie the best.  LaJoie has consistently scored about 18-20 points at the 1.5 mile tracks, which is fine for his $5,200 salary.  Wallace looked faster and more energized last weekend.  He should gain a few spots and finish about 25th or so.  Starting from 29th and 30th, there is very little downside with these two -- especially considering the low quality rides starting at the very back of the field.
  • If you have the extra salary to bump up to David Ragan, I would probably take that.  He ran some pretty decent times in practice and was the fastest of this group.  That said, he's only got one finish above 25th in the four 1.5 mile track races so far this year, so I don't think you have to have him and I wouldn't sacrifice elsewhere to get him over a guy like Bubba.
  • Ty Dillon has been a hot name lately.  The numbers show that he's done his best work at the super speedways and short tracks this season.  His four Top 20 runs have come at the two super speedway races, Bristol and Martinsville.  Conversely, at the four 1.5 mile track races, he's finished 25th or worse three times.  And his DK point totals in those four races are 0, 11, 16 and 24.  He's $6,700 and the most expensive of the lower end drivers, so I'm shying away because you should be able to hit those same point totals for $1K less salary.
• There's not a whole lot of value in the $7K-$8.5K range.  Most of those guys are starting too high and, therefore, carry too much risk for a cash game.  Maybe Buescher, but 15th or so is a best case scenario for him.
• I think a lot of the focus will be on the next group from $8.6K-$10K.  I really like three guys there.
  • Eric Jones starting 16th.  In final practice he was 3rd on the 15 lap chart at 30.187/lap.  He went up to 2nd on the 20 lap chart at 30.228/lap.  That's showing almost no fall off and he was just .02 seconds per lap off the fastest pace set by Kyle Busch on that 20 lap average.  Plus, in the last two 1.5 mile track races, Jones has finished 3rd and 4th.  Overall, he has three Top 7 finishes in the four races on those tracks this season.  Finally, the entire Joe Gibbs group was fast in practice and has performed well on the 1.5 mile tracks this season.
  • Denny Hamlin starting 20th.  Same story for this Joe Gibbs driver.  He was 2nd on the 15 lap chart at 30.178/lap and swapped with Jones down to 3rd on the 20 lap chart at 30.324/lap.  Denny also has a strong history at Charlotte.  He has finished in the Top 5 in the last three Coca Cola 600 races.  And he has Top 5 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races overall at the Charlotte oval.
  • Kyle Larson starting 25th.  He's just too good to be that far back.  He should be at least a +10 position difference guy and has the potential to work into the Top 10 or Top 5 over the long race.  He hasn't been great at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  But at the last race in Kansas he did work his way from 35th starting spot all the way up to 8th.
• On the very top end, I really like everyone in the $10K+ range.
  • Keselowski is similar to Larson and offers big + position difference upside combined with race winning potential.  I'd prefer BK over Larson if you have the salary to do it.
  • Elliott was real fast at the last 1.5 mile track in Kansas.  He's now led 35+ laps at the last two 1.5 mile track races.
  • Truex has a strong history in the 600.  Last year he finished 2nd.  Two years ago, he was 3rd and led 233 laps.  Three years ago, he was a beast and won the thing while leading 392 of 400 laps.  In 2015, he finished 5th and led 131 laps.  However, he's struggled a bit at the last two 1.5 mile tracks (finishing outside the Top 10).  And he wasn't quite as fast as his JGR teammates in practice.
  • Harvick has the best numbers at the 1.5 mile tracks this year.  He was the best car at Kansas, but lost the race on pit road.  He's finished the other three 1.5 mile track races in the Top 8 and he's led at least 45 laps and scored at least 38 fastest laps in 3 of the 4 1.5 mile track races this year.  He wasn't great in practice and he's been only decent in the 600 in years past.  He hasn't had anything close to a dominating performance in any of the last four years at the 600.
  • Finally, Kyle Busch.  He killed it on the long runs in final practice.  Top of the chart on 10 lap, 15 lap and 20 lap average.  Last year, he won the 600 and led 377 of 400 laps.  Two years ago, he finished 2nd and led 63 laps.  He's had speed all year at the 1.5 mile tracks.  He's my top play and top choice to dominate.