cup championship race

The wild 2020 season comes to an end Sunday afternoon with 312 laps of racing from Phoenix. Chase Elliott, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano or Denny Hamlin will be crowned NASCAR's 2020 champion. Here's who I'm looking at for cash games:

• Brad Keselowski - The #2 team is bringing back the car that dominated races at New Hampshire and Richmond earlier this year. Those two tracks are the closest comparisons to Phoenix, so it has to be a bit scary to the competition that Brad will be in this car. He won both earlier races, led 184 and 192 laps, ran 54 and 44 fastest laps and scored 122 and 124 DK points. In the Spring Phoenix race, Brad was also really, really fast over the long run. He ended up 11th because of some goofy pit strategy during the caution in the final laps, but led 82 laps and ran 30 fastest laps in that race.
• Chase Elliott - Chase dominated the first part of the Phoenix race earlier this year, but fell a lap down when he had to pit under green for a loose wheel. He rebounded to finish 7th to go along with 93 laps led and 60 fastest laps. He will start up front and is in a good spot to lead all (or most) of the laps heading into the Lap 30 competition caution. He has a good pit crew and #1 pit stall, which should help him maintain or gain on pit road.
• Joey Logano - He won the Spring Phoenix race with 60 laps led and 25 fastest laps. He's finished in the Top 4 in all five races this year at short, flat tracks. He's a little cheaper than Brad and Chase, but it's also slightly less likely that Joey gets up and leads a whole lot of laps. 
• Denny Hamlin - I can't see playing Hamlin in cash games. He's only got one Top 10 finish at the short, flat tracks this season and he's really been struggling lately. They are bringing a new car to this race and JGR is usually very strong here though. So there is an outside chance this new ride is a beast and he dominates. That's the sound of a tournament play, not a cash game play.
• Kevin Harvick - If you go outside the Championship 4, it will probably be for Harvick. Historically, he's very good at Phoenix and he offers some position difference upside from 11th. I'm assuming they were prepping a car they thought would be fighting for the championship here, so it should be a good one. But it's only natural to lose some of the edge coming off the disappointing playoff exit.

Mid-Tier Position Difference Plays

• Jimmie Johnson - Had three Top 12 runs at short, flat tracks earlier in the year, but struggled the last two races. Also struggling overall. Probably better to skip at this salary.
• William Byron - About the same profile as Johnson, but almost $1k cheaper.
• Tyler Reddick - Ran well here in the Spring until he got into the wall and cut a tire. 10th at New Hampshire and 11th at Richmond -- which are the closest comps.
• Chris Buescher - One of my favorite cash game plays. Has been more up and down this year, but has +10 position difference from the 31st starting spot this week.
• Michael McDowell, Ryan Preece and J.H. Nemechek - Salary savers who should gain a few spots each. Preece has run well lately and at short, flat tracks overall. He has the most upside here, but also the most risk.