Cup daytona road course

We saw in the Xfinity race on Saturday how chaotic a race on the Daytona road course can be. With no practice and the possibility of wet conditions, we just have no idea what might happen. So I think we're well advised to play a lighter load this week. I'm pretty much settled on a modified super speedway approach to Sunday's race. Here's how that would work:

• Start with a guy up front who you feel the most confident about getting a Top 5 result and hopefully throwing in some laps led and fastest laps. The two guys sticking out to me are Chase Elliott and Martin Truex.
  • Elliott has won the last two road course races, including a dominant win at the Charlotte Roval last Fall. That track is the closest comparison to the Daytona road course. In that Roval race, Elliott led 35 laps and ran 30 fastest laps on his way to winning the race.
  • If Elliott is not the top road course driver right now, then it's Truex. He's finished 1st or 2nd in five of the last seven road course events. But, the two races in that stretch where he didn't finish 1st or 2nd were the last two races at the Roval.
  • You could also consider Kyle Busch here. Kyle ran the Rolex 24 at Daytona in January, so he's got the most recent experience on the traditional Daytona road course layout (without the front stretch chicane that was added for the NASCAR events). Busch, too, has struggled at the Charlotte Roval -- finishing 32nd and 37th in the two races on that course. Probably more of a tournament play, but worth mentioning. Since Busch is still not locked into the playoffs, he may also use a strategy to score some stage points, which tends to hurt your chances of having a top finishing position.
• The next group I'd focus on goes from the 24th-30th starting positions. We'll want a few of these guys.
  • Ryan Blaney (24th) has four straight Top 8 finishes at road courses -- including a win in the 2018 race at the Roval. He's got a win and is locked into the playoffs, so he can use a strategy to try to win the race instead of trying for stage points and hurting his chances of finishing up front.
  • Cole Custer (26th) was real solid on the road courses in the Xfinity Series. In his last two years in that Series, he finished in the Top 10 in all eight road course events -- including 7th and 8th place finishes at the Roval.
  • Alex Bowman (27th) has been good at the road courses. In six road course races in the #88 car, Bowman has never finished worse than 14th. And his best two road course finishes are 4th and 2nd place finishes the last two years at the Roval which, again, is the best comparison to this Daytona layout.
  • Michael McDowell (30th) has a road course background. In the last five road course races, he's finished 18th or better four times. He finished 12th at the Roval last year and was 18th at the Roval in 2018. He's not as cheap as he has been, but he only needs to finish 19th or better to hit the 5x return we're looking for. 
• For salary savers, I don't think it would be totally crazy to use a guy like J.J. Yeley or James Davison. Yeley has been running the best of the Rick Ware cars this year and he has plenty of road course experience. As for Davison, he has a ton of road course experience from the Indy Car, IMSA and Grand Am series. He's been in this stock car five times already this year and acquitted himself very well considering it's not top level equipment. He's starting 38th and offers +10 position difference potential in my view.
• A couple other guys of interest:
  • Brendan Gaughan -- Starts dead last in 39th. He's got a lot of road course experience in different sports car series and also more recent races in the Xfinity Series. This is a one race effort, though, so there is always heightened risks that go along with that.
  • Brad Keselowski -- On occasion, Brad has run really well at road courses and he's always been a master at saving fuel if it becomes that kind of race. He starts 17th and should move forward. The question is whether it will be enough to make it worth the $10k+ salary because it's a stretch to think he's going to lead many laps.
  • Clint Bowyer -- Finished 3rd and 4th in the last two races at the Roval. He rolls off 12th on Sunday and can certainly finish in the Top 5 once again. The only concern I have is that he'll probably be aiming for stage points in the first two stages which will put him behind the 8-ball on the preferred strategy of pitting before the end of each stage. This strategy often limits the driver's ability to finish the race up front. But, Clint was racing for stage points at the Roval last year and it worked out, so who knows if he can make it work here too.

Lastly, a few bets I'm playing on Sunday:

• Christopher Bell -115 Ryan Newman
• Chase Elliott +440 to win
• Martin Truex +480 to win
• Chase Elliott +140 Top 3
• Matt DiBenedetto +405 to win Group C (DiBenedetto, Bowyer, Kurt Busch, Jimmie Johnson)

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