cup series - daytona road course

SUNDAY 2PM LATE UPDATE - LIKING SUAREZ TO USE INSTEAD OF (OR WITH) TY DILLON. BOTH ARE STILL SOLID. ALSO LIKE DIBENEDETTO. SHOULD HAVE A GOOD +12-15 OR MORE POSITION DIFFERENCE. 

I think there are some obvious plays here and a few tough questions for cash games on Sunday. Let's go over them:

• Lock in Alex Bowman and Ty Dillon.
  • Bowman is a good (but not great) road course racer and has consistently performed well. In eight road course races in the Cup Series, he's finished no worse than 14th and has two Top 5 finishes. He got a flat tire and went a lap down last year at Daytona, but raced his way back to finish 12th. Starting 36th, his expected floor is at +15 or so position difference with an upside of +30.
  • Ty Dillon has been sneaky good at road courses. He finished 20th at Daytona and 23rd at Charlotte last year. He also had a 15th place finish at Charlotte in 2019. Considering he's not been in top level cars, that's really good. He probably takes a small step down in equipment this season, but still should be a Top 25 car. From his starting spot of 38th with a $5,600 salary, that works just fine. I would not go cheaper than this in cash games.
• Decide among the four $10k+ options of Martin Truex, Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney and AJ Allmendinger.
  • Truex has great speed at the road courses and may be the best driver here. But he's been making mistakes that cost him shots at the win. There have been pit road penalties and then he just lost it in the Clash a few weeks ago. He clearly had the best car that night. Starting 19th with race winning upside.
  • Elliott will probably lead all or most of Stage 1. At that point, pit strategy comes into play and we'll have to see how things shake out. He's a great road course racer and has executed to perfection at the road course races -- winning four in a row. With so many other drivers having huge position difference upside, I'm leaning toward fading Elliott in cash games since he would have to be perfect and dominate the race to offset the position difference points the other guys in this tier are going to earn. Can he do it? Definitely. But that's the only way he works over the rest of these guys.
  • Blaney starts 27th and has +20 position difference upside. He's finished in the Top 8 in five of the last six road course races. He finished 31st at Daytona last year, but was heading for another Top 10 finish until he missed the front chicane in the closing laps and fell to the back of the lead lap.
  • Allmendinger is a road course guy and starts 34th. He's got +30 position difference upside. He's not running the full season in the Cup Series, though, so it's win or go home for him. He won't be holding anything back or playing anything on the safe side.
• Fill in with mid-tier options like Eric Jones, Chris Buescher and Ryan Newman.
  • Jones starts 37th. With Joe Gibbs Racing, he was often a Top 10 car at the road courses, including finishes of 11th at Daytona and 3rd at Charlotte last year. He takes a step down to Richard Petty's team this season, but he should still be able to crack the Top 20.
  • Buescher has been remarkably steady at road courses. He was teammates for several years with A.J. Allmendinger and I think that really improved his road course skills. He's finished 20th or better in each of the last ten road course races.
  • Newman isn't a great road course racer, but he should keep the car on the track and move up some from his 33rd starting spot. He finished 19th at Daytona last year. While I wouldn't count on a Top 20 repeat, he should be able to pick up 8-10 position difference points.