darlington

Here's a mid-week look ahead at the Darlington race on Sunday night.  There are two practice sessions on Friday, qualifying only on Saturday and the race on Sunday night.  It's a nice spread out schedule that will give us plenty of time to analyze results and plan our lineups.  The weather forecast looks decent with only a slight chance of storms on Friday and Saturday.  It doesn't look like anything will get washed out.

Before getting too deep into driver notes and targets, here are a few general points to keep in mind for this race:

• We have 367 laps, so points for laps led and fastest laps will be critical on DK in particular.  There are 91.75 points out there for laps led and 183.5 points for fastest laps.  So we want to look at how those ended up being allocated the last few years to help us understand how to build the best lineup.
• In 2017, we had two Dominators.  Denny Hamlin had 124 laps led and 47 fastest laps for 54.5 points and Kyle Larson had 124 laps led and 52 fastest laps for 57 points.  Martin Truex wasn't too far behind them at 76 laps led and 46 fastest laps for 42 points.
• In 2016 and 2015, however, one Dominator separated from the rest of the field.
• In 2016, it was Kevin Harvick with 214 laps led and 48 fastest laps for 77.5 points.  The next closest was Brad Keselowski with 47 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 32.25 points.
• In 2015, the big dog was Brad Keselowski with 196 laps led and 41 fastest laps for 69.5 points.  The next closest was Kevin Harvick with 44 laps led and 34 fastest laps for 28 points.
• In the last three races at Darlington, Kyle Busch has led a collective total of 10 laps and run a collective total of 28 fastest laps.  So that's a total of 16.5 extra points in the last three races combined.  That's not to say he can't dominate this weekend -- only pointing out he's been nowhere close to Dominator status the last three years.

Here are some preliminary driver targets:

• Denny Hamlin -- He won last year, although post-race inspection uncovered a rear suspension violation and the win was deemed "encumbered".  He does have a great history here.  In the last 8 races here, he has 2 wins and 6 Top 5 finishes.  In the last 3 races here, he's finished 1st, 4th and 3rd.  He has a very modest $9,900 price tag on DK.
• Kevin Harvick -- He's been really, really good here with SHR.  In the four races since joining SHR, he's been on the pole three times.  In two of those four years he has absolutely dominated the race.  In 2016, he started from pole, finished second but led 214 laps.  In 2014, he started from pole, won the race and led 238 laps.  Last year, he was on pole again, but finished 9th with only 22 laps led.  He did have several issues on pit stops in that race, which certainly held him back.  At $11,400 DK, he is a full $1K cheaper then Kyle Busch and $700 cheaper then Kyle Larson.  Very odd.
• Martin Truex -- Finished 8th, 1st and 9th in the last three races here.  Last year, he started 2nd, finished 8th and led 76 laps.  In 2016, he won, but led only 28 laps.
• Kyle Busch -- As we noted above, he hasn't dominated here of late.  But he still has finished in the Top 11 in each of the last 8 races here.  In the last four races, he's finished 2nd, 11th, 7th and 6th.  He last dominated a race here in 2013 when he started 3rd, finished 6th and led 265 laps.  As the most expensive driver on both sites, he might be hard to justify in a cash game given his price tag and lack of recent domination here.
• Eric Jones -- Started 10th, finished 5th last year in his lone Cup Series race here.  In two Xfinity races here, he had similar results -- in 2016, he started 10th, finished 6th and in 2017, he started 11th, finished 4th.  Still reasonably priced at $8,700 on DK.
• Ryan Newman -- In four races here with RCR, Newman has finished 7th, 8th, 13th and 10th.  In those four races he has a collective +23 position difference.  Going back further, he's finished in the Top 10 here in 10 of the last 13 races.  Very affordable at $7,000 on DK.  My only concern in a cash game here is that they could gamble on fuel since they have no chance at the playoffs without a Hail Mary win.
• Austin Dillon -- Sticking with RCR, Dillon has finished 4th, 12th, 22nd and 11th in his four Cup Series races here.  He is a collective +25 position difference in those races.  Even cheaper then Newman at $6,600 DK.
• Kyle Larson -- He's been fine here.  Last year, he started 4th, finished 14th and led 124 laps.  Before that, he had 3 straight Top 10 finishes with very strong position difference.  But he seems overpriced at $12,100 DK -- which is more then Harvick and Truex.  Will probably end up too expensive to justify in cash games.
• Brad Keselowski -- As shown above, he's been in the Dominator picture in 2 of the last 3 races here.  That said, he really hasn't had great finishes.  Last year, he started 6th, finished 15th, with only 3 laps led.  In 2016, even though he led some laps and ran a good number of fastest laps, he finished 9th with a -7 position difference.  He is priced down a bit at $9,300 DK, though, so he's on the radar.
• Ty Dillon -- 2017 was his only Cup Series race here and he started 25th and finished 13th.  Pretty impressive, but DK price tag of $5,400 reflects the risky nature of using him.
• Chris Buescher -- Been in two Cup Series races here and finished 17th both times.  He was +10 position difference last year and +14 in 2016.  Decent price at $6,100 DK.
• Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola -- Neither has a great history at Martinsville, but both are with SHR and are having great years and they seem under priced at $8,900 DK and $8,100 DK, respectively.
  

That's it for now.  We'll have some Xfinity notes on Friday night to help you set lineups for that race on Saturday.  Our final Cup Series update will be on Saturday night after all practice and qualifying is complete.