darlington cup

We'll have 367 laps and just over 500 miles of racing on Sunday night from Darlington. This is a very, very long and grueling race. And we'll see pit stops at virtually every caution flag since the tires fall off very quickly here. For cash games, we've got some really good and affordable plays starting deep in the field, so let's cover them first:

• Eric Jones -- In 5 Cup Series races at Darlington, Jones has never finished worse than 8th. He won this race last year. In addition to that win, he has two 5th place finishes and two 8th place finishes at Darlington. He starts 30th, so even a career worse 10th place finish would still get him 54 DK points even if he doesn't lead a lap or score a fastest lap. He's expensive at $9,600, but only needs a 13th place finish to hit a 5x return.
• Ryan Preece -- He starts 35th and is $5,900 on DK. He finished 22nd and 20th in his first two Darlington races. He started the last Darlington race from the pole (due to the Top 20 inversion from the prior race) and was running 13th in the Second Stage when his motor blew up. He finished 39th, but was showing Top 20-ish speed again. I think he's pretty easily the best sub-$6k option.
• Tyler Reddick -- These high tire wear tracks with a high line against the wall are where Reddick has done his best work. He was awesome at Homestead and finished 7th and 13th in the two earlier Darlington races this year. He had a lot of success in the Xfinity Series at those tracks as well. The one and only concern I have is whether he can keep the car clean for 500 miles. The Darlington races earlier this year were 400 and 300 miles, so we're adding another 100 miles and 70+ laps to the longest race Reddick has ever done here.
• Ryan Newman and Jimmie Johnson are also solid choices.
  • Johnson had a really, really fast car here in the first race when the season resumed, but he wrecked from the lead and was out of that race. He started 37th and finished 8th in race two. The Hendrick cars have been pretty fast at both Darlington and Homestead this season, so there is certainly Top 10 upside here.
  • Newman is a guy I generally like in cash games and especially in these long races because he's such a bulldog. But, frankly, he's been off his game lately and isn't seeing the consistent 14th-18th place finishes were used to seeing from him. He's a safe play with a rock solid floor starting 31st, but it's really hard to project anything better than a 20th place finish. That's still almost a 5x return, so it's a solid play, but I don't think he's a must have at this point.

I'm really struggling with what to do with my top end plays. There are just too many good options:

• Kevin Harvick -- Dominated race one here when the season resumed, but was never really a contender in race two despite finishing 3rd. He's finished in the Top 10 here the last seven races and, in six of those races, he's been in the Top 5 -- with one win. He's been the most consistent car all year long and is never a bad choice.
• Denny Hamlin -- He won race two here earlier this year. And, with the exception of 2019, has been great at Darlington with two wins in the last five races. He has a few more bad outcomes then Harvick this year, but has been one of the fastest cars all year long. He also dominated at Homestead earlier this year, which is a very similar track.
• Chase Elliott -- Probably had the best car at the end of race two earlier this year, but got wrecked by Kyle Busch on a restart. He'll start from the pole and have the coveted #1 pit stall, which should really help given all the pit stops we'll see over this 500 mile race.
• Martin Truex -- He finished 4th at Daytona last week and has seven consecutive Top 3 finishes before that. He's on a great roll right now even though he doesn't have a race win in that stretch. He had a really, really good long run car in the second Darlington race earlier this season. He starts 6th and I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him leading at some point in this race.
• I can honestly see any one of these guys being the highest scorer on Sunday night and there's not a whole lot I see to differentiate them. They are all really, really good plays. At the end of the day, not having Harvick scares me the most. If someone is going to come in with a beast car and just drive away from everyone, I think it's most likely to be the #4 car.
• I love Hamlin too, but going up to his salary makes it harder to fit in a guy like Eric Jones without compromising the lineup elsewhere.

Bets

• I'm seeing that Ryan Newman is near +200 in H2H against several drivers, including Christopher Bell and Cole Custer. Bell and Custer have never raced 500 miles here and it's real easy to blow a tire and go laps down by getting into the outside wall. They probably beat Newman if they stay clean, but I still don't see Ryan as this big an underdog.