darlington cup (1)

Sunday Final Update: Don't have anything new to add. Things have been analyzed six ways to Sunday so we're already overthinking it. When in doubt, it often turns out our first impression of things is/was correct. Good luck everyone.

Friday Night Update: Adding a list of wagers I'm making for Sunday:

• Bowyer -105 over Almirola
• Logano +120 over Harvick
• Keselowski Even over Truex
• Keselowski +105 over Elliott
• Kyle Busch -115 over Hamlin
• Custer -110 over Bell
• Kyle Busch to win +650
• Kurt Busch to win +2500

Original Article Posted Thursday Night:
We're almost there. I want to start today with some targets based on salary and starting position which was determined today. As always, I'm focusing on cash games or 50/50 contests but will throw in a few larger tournament ideas as well.

For this first group, I'm going to start with Tyler Reddick at $7,200 and work my way down the salary list.

• Tyler Reddick, $7,200, 29th -- He's a little too risky and the salary has crept high enough to where I probably won't use him in cash games. But he's got some upside. In the two low HP, high down force races this season, he finished 18th at Las Vegas and 11th at Auto Club. He has one Cup Series start at Darlington last September and finished 37th. That's a bit deceiving though because he was running 20th late in the race but cut a tire after contact with Ryan Newman and ended up causing a big wreck that killed a number of good cars, including his own. He also has Xfinity Series experience at Darlington, so he's not a newcomer to the track. Finally, he's comfortable running close to the wall which is usually the fastest way around this track. Not a bad play, but not the safest either.
• Chris Buescher, $7,000, 24th -- I love Buescher in cash games just about every week. He's in a real solid spot starting 24th and a safer play compared to Reddick. You can count on him for a likely 15th-20th place finish every week. He's finished 14th and 16th in the two low HP, high down force races this year. He finished 12th at Darlington last year and ran in the Top 15 just about all night long. In four Cup Series races at Darlington, he's finished 17th, 17th, 13th and 12th. Last year, in the 15 races at intermediate tracks with the low HP, high down force package, Buescher finished in the Top 20 every single time. His record is damn impressive for someone who has never been with a top level team. In my mind, he's much safer then Reddick or Bell who are also options in this price range.
• Christopher Bell, $6,600, 28th -- Bell has struggled this year and doesn't have any Cup series experience at Darlington. His team is a Joe Gibbs satellite, though, so he should have all the best equipment and simulation preparation heading into the race which should help. I don't have a problem with using him in cash if you have the salary to do so. But I see a few guys $1,000 or so cheaper that might be better overall options if you need to save salary.
• Daniel Suarez, $6,200, 37th --  Personally, I probably won't use him, but it's fine to go this way in cash. It's super safe because he can't go backwards but there's also limited upside. Don't be fooled by any track history here since he's with a totally different team this year and is not in competitive equipment. I'm also a bit worried about how the long layoff might impact this #96 team. Project a finish in the 28th-30th range. I prefer cheaper options if you're down in this range.
• J.H. Nemecheck, $5,900, 34th -- Also fine. In the three non-Daytona races this year, he's finished either 24th or 25th. He's young, can get impatient and doesn't have much Darlington experience at all though. So I prefer the cheaper, safer, more experienced drivers below.
• Ty Dillon, $5,600, 33rd -- This should be a cash game lock. This is a pricing error by DK. No way he should be below Suarez or JHN. In three Darlington starts, he's finished 13th, 21st and 20th. In the two low HP, high down force races this year, he's finished 10th and 26th. He's with a solid team that has a RCR alliance, so should be fine despite the layoff. Project a finish right around 25th.
• Michael McDowell, $5,400, 31st -- I also really like McDowell at this price. He's fine at Darlington. In the last three races there, he's finished 19th, 20th and 38th. But the 38th last year looks worse then it was. He was running 23rd late in the race but was right behind Reddick when he blew the tire and got heavy damage in the resulting wreck. I'd project him to finish right around 25th with Ty Dillon.
• For larger tournaments, I'd flip most of this around. Focus on Reddick and Bell who have more upside as far as better position difference and maybe even some fastest laps. I also really like Cole Custer ($6,300) in more aggressive formats. Even from the 14th starting position, he has some potential to sneak into the Top 10 and offer some positive position difference. In the last two Xfinity races at Darlington, he's finished 2nd to Brad Keselowski (2018) and Denny Hamlin (2019). Custer is also with a top team and should be as well prepared as anyone in this price range coming off the long lay off.

Now for the guys in the $8k and over category:

• Kurt Busch, $8,500, 22nd -- I really like Kurt here. He definitely had a Top 3 car last September at Darlington. He led 94 laps and had a race high 65 fastest laps. He really had the best car past the midpoint of the race but lost a bunch of spots during a pit stop and could only climb back to 7th by the end of the race. In his last three Darlington races, he's finished 3rd, 6th and 7th.
• Eric Jones, $9,200, 20th -- Eric won here last September and really had a good car by the end of the race. In fact, all the Joe Gibbs cars were really, really fast here last September. Eric led 79 laps and had 18 fastest laps. In three Darlington starts in the Cup Series he's finished 5th, 8th and 1st. I am concerned with Eric's performance this year though. Through four races, he has only one Top 10 finish -- a 10th place result at Auto Club. I'm leaning Kurt over Eric here but either or both is fine in cash formats.
• Brad Keselowski, $10,400, 1st -- It's hard to pass on track at Darlington, so starting from pole gives Brad a really good chance to lead laps early in the race. But we have an early competition caution, so we can't even feel very confident that the lead will hold for long. There's modified pit procedures so, if Brad leads at the time of caution, he should be guaranteed the lead off pit road. But it would still bunch up the field and result in an early restart. For later pit stops, normal rules will apply and I have some concern about Brad's pit box because, unlike most races, Brad as pole sitter won't have the first and best pit stall. That belongs to the #4 of Kevin Harvick who tops the owners points standings. Brad will have the #95 of Christopher Bell pitting in front of him and, as long as Bell stays on the lead lap, his car will be sitting there when Brad has to leave his pit. That could be enough to slow him down and cost him a position or two on later pit stops.  Last year Brad started 2nd, finished 5th and led 19 laps with 14 fastest laps. He never really had a Top 3 car in last year's race and finished about where he should have. This year, the Penske Fords have been really fast as a group. Brad probably had the best car in the last race at Phoenix, but he picked up some damage early on and then had some questionable pit strategy at the end of the race, leading to an 11th place finish. He's finished 7th and 5th in the two low HP, high down force races so far this season. There are good reasons to use him, but I'm not entirely convinced he's a must play because I'm not sure he can dominate the bulk of the race.
• Denny Hamlin, $11,100, 10th -- Denny usually runs very well at Darlington. He was running 4th late in the race last year before getting caught up in the wreck caused by Tyler Reddick's flat tire. He got some pretty big damage and then got hit again on pit road which essentially ended his night. He limped to the end finishing 29th. He won here just two years ago and led 124 laps in that race -- although the rules package is much different now as compared to that race. He has top dominator and race winning upside.
• Kyle Busch, $11,800, 4th -- At this point, Kyle is my #1 dominator. Last September at Darlington, he started from the rear of the field but was 4th by the end of the first stage. He went on to finish 3rd, while leading a race high 118 laps and scoring 43 fastest laps. He's finished 2nd, 7th and 3rd in the last three Darlington races. And he finished 2nd and 3rd in the last two races early this Spring before the long layoff. Finally, he's probably the most talented guy in the garage -- which is what I want in a race on a green race track with no practice or qualifying following a two month layoff.
• Martin Truex, $10,800, 15th -- For me, he's a large tournament only play. He has a new and first time crew chief this year and they have struggled to start the season. His best finish so far is 14th at Auto Club. He did look very strong at Phoenix though before an accident ruined his day. At this price, I need to see them click before I'll use him in cash. But fire away in large tournaments.
• Joey Logano, $10,100, 9th -- This is a guy I really like in large tournaments as a contrarian play. I think most people will gravitate to Keselowski, Truex or even Elliott in this price range, so Logano may be low owned. With the layoff, people may forget he already has two wins this season. And I love this driver-crew chief pairing. Not a cash game play.