darlington cup 2

The inverted starting order makes this a very odd cash game slate. We don't have expected dominators starting up front. And we don't really have any good value plays starting further back. What we've got is a pack of guys starting 13-20 that will probably have some of the best cars and lead a bunch of laps or run a bunch of fastest laps. And then we've got another group starting way back that has huge position difference upside. The names here are pretty obvious. The bigger question is how to combine them to make the best lineup. For cash games, here's what I'm thinking right now:

• You have to roll with William Byron and Jimmie Johnson. Both of these guys had great cars on Sunday and they are locks for the Top 20 and +20 position difference. Even if they only got to around 18th, we'd be getting 45 points which will 5x their respective salaries of $8,900 for Byron and $9,100 for Johnson. And there's real potential for Top 10 finishes, which raises the ceiling to 55 points or more even without adding in any laps led or fastest laps. In a cash game setting, we just can't ignore quality drivers on a top team with this kind of high floor and high ceiling as well. The price is also very reasonable for what they offer.
• I'd normally say Chris Buescher and Rickey Stenhouse are locks as well. They both struggled mightily on Sunday, but have good rides and should be better in this race. We won't go too crazy, but even a finish of about 22nd-24th puts them on pace to score 35-40 points and will have them pretty close to a 5x return. Of the two, I'm shocked and nervous to be leaning toward Stenhouse. He's a bit cheaper and literally can only go up from his dead last starting spot. Buescher was really off the pace on Sunday even before he got spun around by Christopher Bell, which put him several laps down. It was really strange to see that given his excellent and consistent history at Darlington and 1.5 mile tracks. 
• Christopher Bell is an option if you want to drop down and save salary off of either or both of Buescher or Stenhouse. He should finish better then 24th, but he's probably too expensive for what he offers. The only other viable value option is probably Corey LaJoie at $5,500. I'm not expecting all that much from him, but would hope he can get you 20-25 points.
• Now what to do with the glob from 13-20 and Kyle Busch? Of the group, I really like Alex Bowman for the best combination of salary and recent performance. We all saw Kevin Harvick win and look really good on Sunday, but a lot of that came from clean air and having the #1 pit box. He'll have the same pit box in this race, but I don't think his car will be as strong in traffic and I'm not sure when/if he'll ever be able to grab the lead and run out front. I really think Bowman had as good of, if not the better, car Sunday. I like the $1,600 discount off Harvick and the high floor considering Bowman starts 19th but should finish in or near the Top 5.
  • Kyle Busch also has a huge ceiling. But you really have to compromise the rest of your roster to fit in his salary. That's where the lack of decent salary savers this week really makes an impact. I'm not saying either Harvick or Busch is a bad play in cash games, but I'm planning to go a different route as of now.
  • I think Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex are probably too risky for cash games, especially considering how inconsistent they have been so far this season.
  • Chase Elliott deserves some consideration as well. He seemed to get better as the race went on Sunday, the Hendrick team as a whole had the best overall speed and he has a very good pit crew -- which is where a lot of spots are gained at Darlington. While I think Chase will have a Top 5-8 car, I'm not sure he can offer the laps led or fastest laps that we'd hope for with a $10k+ salary.
• Kurt Busch is another great option once again at a reasonable price.
• I really like Truex in tournaments. He's been off this year and almost got lapped in Stage 1 on Sunday. But his car seemed to come alive in the second half of the race on Sunday. By the end of the race, he had the best long run speed of any one out there. If he can break out here it would bust the slate open since he has position difference upside as well. Until we see it in a race, though, I think it's too risky for a cash game.

Here are some bets I've placed. I did some pretty big long shots, so obviously only putting down a small amount on those. I like some long shots better than normal for these races because of the rain. We could have a shortened race with some kind of oddball finish. And all the guys I'm taking a chance on had good speed Sunday or have shown good/race winning speed this season. So they should be able to hang around the lead and hope for some good luck at the end.

• Bowman +115 Kyle Busch
• Bowman -120 Keselowski
• Bowyer +105 DiBenedetto
• Bowyer +145 Kenseth
• Preece +130 Buescher
• Newman +155 Kenseth
• Truex +330 Group A
• Jones +300 Group C
• Bowyer +329 Group D
• J.H. Nemechek +408 Group E
• Bowyer +6600 to win
• Xfinity -- added Harrison Burton +1370 to win
• Xfinity -- added Brandon Jones +1600 to win