Darlington Cup series

There are several good cars starting pretty far back Sunday night.  But, to roster them, you're going to give up much chance of getting a lot of Dominator points for laps led and fastest laps because almost all those points come from cars starting in the Top 10.  In fact, looking at the last four races here, of the cars that scored the most Dominator points (either 50+ laps led or 25+ fastest laps), 20 of those 21 cars started in the Top 10.  And the lone outlier started 16th.  It's only more difficult to pass with the new package this year, so I don't expect this to change at all.

Everyone will start with Kyle Busch and from there you have to decide whether you want to stay more conservative and get guys with position difference upside or go more aggressive and get a couple guys starting in the Top 10 in hopes of getting the DOM points.

Either way you go, here are the guys to target:

• Kyle Busch -- Just lock him in.
• Aric Almirola -- This is the first decision point.  He starts 30th, but like Busch will have to go to the rear to start the race.  I'm inclined to lock him in for cash games.  These guys are above the playoff cut line and just need a safe, solid performance to help lock them in.  Everything they'll be looking to do aligns perfectly with what we'd want from a cash game driver.  I think a 12th-15th place finish is a reasonable likely outcome.
• Ryan Newman -- Kind of similar to Almirola.  He's a bit closer to the playoff cut line, so really needs that solid run.  He's finished in the Top 10 here two of the last three races.
• Eric Jones -- Showed the best long run speed in final practice.  Was 4th in 20 lap average, 3rd in 25 lap average and 1st in 25 lap average.  Over the long run, he gained on and overtook Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin who both have excellent cars and track history.  Finished 5th and 8th in his two Southern 500 races so far.
• Denny Hamlin -- This is a great race track for Denny and he's had good chunks of laps led and fastest laps in the last four races here.  Plus he's on a damn good roll right now with six straight Top 5 finishes.  But can you afford him and Kyle Busch?
• Kyle Larson -- Loves to ride around the top and made great time in final practice.  He had the best 10, 15 and 20 lap average times in final practice.  Top 8 finishes in the last four races coming into this week.  Will probably be the most owned guy for those looking for DOM points.
• Martin Truex -- Real good position difference upside starting 22nd.
• Ty Dillon -- Good upside starting 29th.  Finished 13th and 21st here the last two years.

Bottom line for me as of now is to play this one more conservative and go for position difference in cash games with guys like Almirola, Newman, etc.  There's just too much risk trying to chase DOM points and if you get one of those guys wrong you're toast.  In tournaments, I'd do the exact opposite thing.