darlington cup

SUNDAY UPDATE -- ADDED ONE MORE H2H BET AT THE BOTTOM

We really don't have a whole lot to go on this weekend because the Cup Series is running the 750HP, low downforce package. It's radically different than what they've run here the last two years -- and much closer to the 2018 Cup package and even the Xfinity Series set up. And there aren't any good track comparisons where the 750HP package has been run. Most of the 750HP tracks are shorter flat tracks (like Martinsville, Phoenix and Richmond) that don't really comp to Darlington at all. Other 750HP tracks (like Dover and Bristol) do have significant banking in the corner like Darlington, but they are much shorter overall and/or don't have the real high groove that most prefer at Darlington. Without practice, we're doing even more guessing then normal this weekend.

Spend up options

• I've got to go back to Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin as my top options here. With so much uncertainty, I think the best bet is to go with the most talented driver who has had really good cars most weeks (Larson) and the guy who has been the most consistently fast driver at all tracks this season (Hamlin).
  • Larson starts 14th and gives you some position difference upside as well. Looking back on his races in the 2018 (and earlier) Darlington package, he was one of the best. In 2017 and 2018, he lead at least 120 laps and ran at least 50 fastest laps in each race. And that was in a Chip Ganassi car, so imagine what he can do now in a Hendrick car.
  • For Hamlin, he was on his way to another Top 5 (if not a win) last week at Kansas before hitting the wall while leading. He's simply been the most consistently fast car at all types of tracks this year. He, too, was strong in the similar Darlington package of the past and he's also run a ton of Xfinity races here. I think that gives this team a bit of a leg up on the field for how to set up the low downforce package here at Darlington.
• One quick note on Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman. I could see using either of these guys with their position difference floor and upside. What I'm struggling with for both of them is that they generally do their best in cooler conditions. Sunday is a day time race with a high of 85 and full sunshine. This track is going to get hot and slick and that's not where these guys are at their best. They definitely are playable, I'm just struggling with projecting their upside here.

Middle Tier Options

• Christopher Bell, Kurt Busch, Aric Almirola and Rickey Stenhouse are the top options here. A few notes on each.
  • Bell has experience in the Xfinity package which is closer to what they'll be running Sunday then the Cup Series package of the last two years. However, he has not excelled at tracks with high tire wear or where you need to run the wall to be fast. And he wasn't that great even in the Xfinity races. He did finish 11th here in the Cup race last Fall though.
  • Busch is a real solid choice with tons of experience at this track in different packages. Five Top 8 finishes in the last six races here.
  • Almirola and Stenhouse have +10-12 position difference upside. They offer some safety with high 20s starting positions. Almirola has six straight Top 20 finishes at Darlington dating back to 2017. 

Sub-$7k Options

• Ryan Preece - Simply a price and starting position play here.
• Ross Chastain - Lots of Xfinity experience here. Don't love the 18th starting position, but everyone else in this range has the same (or even more) risk. Ran really well here in second Xfinity race last Fall.

Bets

• Kurt Busch EV C. Bell
• Reddick +105 C. Bell
• Newman +125 Eric Jones
• Suarez +140 Eric Jones