darlington cup

More practice/qualifying drama leaves us with some very chalky plays for cash games and single entry contests on Sunday. Let's go through my top options --

• Kevin Harvick - Starts 35th after being unable to qualify because of a flat tire and resulting damage in practice. He's finished inside the Top 5 in eight of the last ten Darlington races, so is consistently very good here. A Top 5 is a stretch starting from the back, but a Top 10 and +25 position difference points is certainly a realistic projection.
• Chase Elliott - Starts 34th after also having a tire go down in practice and making hard contact with the outside wall. He'll be in a backup car for Sunday. He's generally very fast at Darlington, but hasn't always gotten the finishing position he probably deserved. That said, he has a very safe floor and Top 10 upside just like Harvick.
• Denny Hamlin - Hamlin had a diffuser issue on Saturday and will be starting from the rear even though he officially has the 22nd starting spot. In the last ten Darlington races, he has three wins and seven Top 5 finishes. He doesn't have quite the same high floor and ceiling as Harvick and Elliott, but I feel like Hamlin is the most likely of that group to get up front and lead laps - although that's still pretty unlikely.
• Kyle Larson - Larson has finished 2nd in the his last three Darlington races. Last Fall, he led 156 laps and ran 86 fastest laps, scoring 123.7 DK points. He starts 2nd on Sunday and I wouldn't be surprised to see him challenge Joey Logano for the early lead. However, Larson has been a relative disappointment at times this year since he's been unable to dominate and run away with races as he did so often last year. I feel that dominant performance is coming, so it is scary to fade him -- but I get it given his performance so far this year and other tempting options.
• Martin Truex and Ross Chastain are other prime dominator targets starting in the Top 10. (I personally don't have enough confidence in Joey Logano holding the early lead to go that direction.)
• Some mid-level guys I'm interested in are Brad Keselowski, Ricky Stenhouse and Cole Custer.
  • Keselowski has a pretty decent history here (albeit in a little better car) and Roush has been OK as an organization here as well. He starts 23rd and it seems reasonable to think he can gain 5+ places and make it worth a sub-$8k salary. He wasn't overly quick in practice on Saturday, but he did make a long run that should help them with adjustments for better long run speed. His teammate Buescher also did a long run, so the organization should have some good data to get better.
  • Stenhouse had a good 10-lap average time in practice and has three consecutive Top 20 finishes at Darlington. He's coming off a good run at Dover and is down under $7k from a relatively safe 26th starting spot.
  • Custer has finished 11th and 12th in two of the last three Darlington races. He didn't put up great times in practice, but is cheap and can't really go backwards from this 28th starting spot unless something goes really wrong.
• Punt plays--
  • Corey LaJoie - Just too cheap for a guy with 15th and 22nd place finishes at Darlington last year. There's not much upside here, but he also doesn't need to do much at all to pay off the sub-$5k salary.
  • Justin Haley - He's finished 17th or better in seven of the last nine races overall this year. He didn't put up real good speed or do a long run in practice, so that is of some concern.