darlington trucks

-A few Saturday night updates in bold

There's so much going on this weekend that I only have time for a short Truck Series write up. This is the first time since 2011 that the Trucks are racing at Darlington, so there's really no track history to use. With no practice at a new track for most of these guys, I'm going to play it very conservatively. There are a lot of decent trucks starting pretty far back that give you high floors, good upside and some safety. We also have a bunch of good trucks starting right up front and any one of them can lead a bunch of laps and dominate the race. But these are pretty short races and we typically see several trucks lead different portions of the race so a lot of those dominator points end up getting spread out among several trucks.

While guys up front like Brett Moffitt, Austin Hill, Zane Smith and Sheldon Creed all could work out, I can't really separate them and say that one of them is most likely to dominate. The early competition caution, short stages and the fact that they get six sets of tires (meaning lots of pit stops whenever a caution comes out) makes me think no one will truly dominate and that we'll see multiple leaders at different times. Since there's no clear favorite and they'll likely split a lot of the dominator points, I'm looking to build a lineup filled with solid place differential plays starting from about 10th on back.

• Christian Eckes and Greg Biffle are obvious top plays. They both have race winning potential with +10 position difference a very likely outcome. Eckes should be well known by now. Kyle Busch truck, lots of speed and talent. Biffle is doing his first race of the season, but he's a veteran with lots of Darlington experience. He also won his one and only race last season at Texas. He'll be in the #24 GMS truck, which is the same truck we've seen Chase Elliott and Sam Meyer have a lot of success with this year.
• David Ragan should be fine as well. He's in a DGR-Crosley truck which is what Tanner Gray has been running all year. It's typically 10th-12th place equipment. I like that there's an early competition caution at Lap 15. That will allow Ragan to get a feel for the truck in the early laps without getting lapped. Don't freak out if he doesn't move up right away.
• Todd Gilliland was awesome last week and ran well at comparable Homestead earlier this year. Looking back at the season results, some of Todd's best races have been at high tire wear tracks like Atlanta and Homestead. That's a good indicator for success this week as we saw very quick tire fall off in the Xfinity race on Saturday.
• Trevor Bayne and Baley Currey are both in Niece trucks and should be able to work their way comfortably into the Top 20. I'd be hoping for something in the 15th-18th range.
• Guys like Austin Wayne Self, Dawson Cram and Codie Rohrbaugh are more risky and in less reliable trucks, but should move up a few spots if they don't run into trouble.
• Sauter has a lot of upside starting 23rd, but he's been running into so many mechanical issues this year that I have trouble trusting him -- especially as the most expensive driver on the slate.
• Guys like Moffitt, Zane Smith, Austin Hill all should challenge for the race win and lead throughout the race. They are safe bets for Top 5 finishes if they don't run into trouble. I think Moffit or Smith lead early because they'll start on the outside row which should give them a good jump at the green flag. My thinking right now is to stay away from these guys in cash games, although the salaries with some of them -- especially Moffitt -- make it very enticing.