darlington xfinity

I missed on Harvick in the first Cup Series race, so that was a tough one. I'll have Xfinity stuff up real late Monday night so you'll have plenty of time to finalize your lineups on Tuesday before the race at 8 pm Eastern time. NOTE: New race time is 6pm Eastern to increase the chance they can dodge the rain and get the race completed.
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Bets

• Alfredo +155 over Annett
• Jones +100 over Allgaier
• Jones -115 over Chastain
• Gragson +105 over Allgaier
• Gragson -105 over Chastain
• Gragson Ev over Herbst (played before qualifying draw)

Monday Night Update 
The big question to start with is whether to use Kyle Busch. For cash games, I say absolutely yes. He's expensive for sure, but there's a clear path for him hitting a 5x or 6x return on that salary. And we have a number of good value plays to round out a credible lineup. Kyle has a very good chance to break this slate and it's a big risk to not use him. I think he'll be heavily owned in all formats so you're banking on the best driver in the field failing if you're hoping to win without him.

Let's run though how he can realistically hit 5x or 6x his salary -- which would be 80-96 points. Let's start with finishing position and position difference. Unless the car breaks, he's going to finish in the Top 3. Even at third place, he gets 41 points for 3rd and 23 position difference points from his 26th starting spot for a total of 64 points. Again, unless the car breaks, 64 points is a minimum baseline. And all he would need is 16 extra points for laps led or fastest laps to hit 80 total and a 5x return on his salary. If he wins, it's 46 + 25 points for a total of 71 -- meaning he's almost at 5x without even considering the many laps led and fastest laps he would score if he wins the race.

So what can we expect as far as laps led and fastest laps? In his last six Xfinity races (excluding a mechanical failure at Watkins Glen last year), Kyle on average leads 49% of the laps run and gets 33% of the fastest laps. And, to be blunt, the competition last year when most of those races took place was much better than the 2020 version. Last year, we had Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer all with top Xfinity teams. I don't know that we have even one driver as strong as any one of those in the 2020 Xfinity field. So Kyle's path to laps led and fastest laps might be easier this year.

All that said, let's be conservative and pull those averages back a bit since he's starting 26th and it will take him some time to work his way up front. Even at 40% laps led and 25% fastest laps, we're looking at about 15 laps led points and 15 fastest laps points for a total of 30 extra points on top of the 64 baseline we talked about before. So we have 95 points as a very realistic projection for Kyle in this race. And, if he wins the race and hits his average of 49% laps led and 33% fastest laps, you're looking at almost 110 total points. And that's not even his ceiling. You need to have him in your lineups.

There is some weather concern and people might wonder if this changes if the race gets shortened. I don't think so. It might even help. Kyle is going to move to the front very quickly. At a minimum, even in a shortened 100 lap race, he's going to get 20+ position difference points and a good chunk of fastest laps and likely laps led as well. I think Kyle easily hits value no matter how long the race is. The only risk is some kind of car failure or fluke wreck taking him out and everyone has that same risk.

So who can we roster with Kyle and still make a credible lineup. Here's the list of guys to consider:

• Daniel Hemric - In top notch equipment, has experience at the track and Top 10 potential which would be +13 or more position difference points. The downside is he tends to be a bit erratic and has finished 30th or worse in two of the four races this season. It's no exaggeration to say his range of outcomes is something like 57 points all the way down to -5.
• Jeffrey Earnhardt - He's running for JD Motorsports here, so it's not a top car and he doesn't have Top 10 potential like Hemric. But, he has some experience and JD has decent equipment and pretty good reliability. It's reasonable to project about a 20th place finish, which would be 38 points when you add in the +14 position difference that would get you. It's a safer play with a lower ceiling but much higher floor then someone like Hemric. By comparison, the range of outcomes is something like 42 points down to 10 points.
• Jeremy Clements - This is a solid team and a Top 20 finish is a reasonable expectation. He also has years of experience in the series, which should help in this no practice or qualifying situation. He's finished no worse than 21st in his last four Darlington races.
• Anthony Alfredo - He's young, talented, in a good car and has Top 10 upside. Starting 17th though, he does have a big downside if something goes wrong. He has only one race in the Xfinity Series and I was not able to find any record of him racing at Darlington in the past. I probably won't use Hemric and Alfredo together in cash. One or the other at most. Update: I am seriously considering using both in cash because I think ownership will be high enough to offset the risks.
• Joe Graf Jr - This is a solid team and car, but not a very good driver. His best finish in four races this year is 20th and he finished 31st or worse in the other three races. I don't feel good about using him but there's little downside since he's starting 36th and we know this team is trying to run the full race. I don't believe he has any Darlington experience.
• Ronnie Bassett - He's fine. The DGM cars are usually decent and reliable. Ronnie hasn't raced in the Xfinity Series this year, but he did have twelve races last season. He does run into issues more often then you'd like, but has a safe 32nd starting spot to lean on here with Top 20 upside. He had two 15th place finishes last season working with this same team.
• Timmy Hill - I feel pretty good about Timmy. He's experienced in the Xfinity Series. And he's raced at Darlington the last four years in the Series which gives him a huge edge over many of the other guys in this area. He's in the #61, which we know is not generally a start and park operation. A finish around 20th is doable.
• Collin Garrett - Starts 39th so can only go up. He's very inexperienced and has never run at Darlington. This is a start up team that ran one race last year and finished 21st at Homestead which is a somewhat comparable track in that it eats tires and the fastest way around is up by the wall. A textbook do no harm punt play with some upside potential. I think he'll be popular.
• Mason Massey - I hesitate to include this one because I can't be 100% sure this team will even try to run the whole race. Mason has one Xfinity Series start and I don't believe he's ever raced at Darlington. OK if you need extreme salary save.

A few last thoughts:

• You could try to run a guy like Chase Briscoe or Harrison Burton, but I think it's doubtful they get many laps led or fastest laps unless something happens to Busch. They start 11th and 12th, respectively, so it will take at least a little time for them to work to the front. Figure Gragson leads the first 10 laps and maybe until the competition caution at Lap 15. They'll be close to the front for the restart but, by that time, Busch will be closing in as well. At the very latest, I think Busch likely takes over to start Stage 2. So Briscoe, Burton and anyone else has only the narrow window between the competition caution and the end of Stage 1 to do damage from the lead. They are good plays in contrarian tournament lineups that fade Busch hoping he runs into a problem.
• Likely to park or not finish the race -- Landon Cassill, Stephen Leicht, Joe Nemechek and Bayley Currey.