I started this blog to provide a casual, recreational level of fantasy NASCAR advice and discussion. I've been playing these contests for a number of years and am annoyed by lineup sellers and groups of players using the same lineup. I'm hoping to give the casual player some help in building solid lineups that can beat that annoying crowd most of the time. I'm not a "tout" and don't do this for a living, so proceed accordingly. I hope you enjoy the discussion here and Good Luck!
I missed on Harvick in the first Cup Series race, so that was a tough one. I'll have Xfinity stuff up real late Monday night so you'll have plenty of time to finalize your lineups on Tuesday before the race at 8 pm Eastern time. NOTE: New race time is 6pm Eastern to increase the chance they can dodge the rain and get the race completed.
Monday Night Update
The big question to start with is whether to use Kyle Busch. For cash games, I say absolutely yes. He's expensive for sure, but there's a clear path for him hitting a 5x or 6x return on that salary. And we have a number of good value plays to round out a credible lineup. Kyle has a very good chance to break this slate and it's a big risk to not use him. I think he'll be heavily owned in all formats so you're banking on the best driver in the field failing if you're hoping to win without him.
Let's run though how he can realistically hit 5x or 6x his salary -- which would be 80-96 points. Let's start with finishing position and position difference. Unless the car breaks, he's going to finish in the Top 3. Even at third place, he gets 41 points for 3rd and 23 position difference points from his 26th starting spot for a total of 64 points. Again, unless the car breaks, 64 points is a minimum baseline. And all he would need is 16 extra points for laps led or fastest laps to hit 80 total and a 5x return on his salary. If he wins, it's 46 + 25 points for a total of 71 -- meaning he's almost at 5x without even considering the many laps led and fastest laps he would score if he wins the race.
So what can we expect as far as laps led and fastest laps? In his last six Xfinity races (excluding a mechanical failure at Watkins Glen last year), Kyle on average leads 49% of the laps run and gets 33% of the fastest laps. And, to be blunt, the competition last year when most of those races took place was much better than the 2020 version. Last year, we had Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer all with top Xfinity teams. I don't know that we have even one driver as strong as any one of those in the 2020 Xfinity field. So Kyle's path to laps led and fastest laps might be easier this year.
All that said, let's be conservative and pull those averages back a bit since he's starting 26th and it will take him some time to work his way up front. Even at 40% laps led and 25% fastest laps, we're looking at about 15 laps led points and 15 fastest laps points for a total of 30 extra points on top of the 64 baseline we talked about before. So we have 95 points as a very realistic projection for Kyle in this race. And, if he wins the race and hits his average of 49% laps led and 33% fastest laps, you're looking at almost 110 total points. And that's not even his ceiling. You need to have him in your lineups.
There is some weather concern and people might wonder if this changes if the race gets shortened. I don't think so. It might even help. Kyle is going to move to the front very quickly. At a minimum, even in a shortened 100 lap race, he's going to get 20+ position difference points and a good chunk of fastest laps and likely laps led as well. I think Kyle easily hits value no matter how long the race is. The only risk is some kind of car failure or fluke wreck taking him out and everyone has that same risk.
So who can we roster with Kyle and still make a credible lineup. Here's the list of guys to consider:
A few last thoughts:
My name is Steve and I've won thousands playing NASCAR fantasy racing games. This blog will share my advice for enjoying and winning your fantasy racing games.