darlington xfinity

Here are my notes heading into practice on Friday. I'll update as needed late Friday after practice.  See Friday night updates in bold.  Of note from practice, Denny Hamlin went to a back up car.  He will officially have whatever starting position he qualifies with tomorrow morning but will have to drop to the rear before the race begins.

• What to do with the Cup drivers:
  • Denny Hamlin is a virtual lock for me.  He's done this Xfinity race here every year lately and done very well.  In the last four years, his worse finish is 4th with 45 DK points.  He's won two of the last four races, finished second in another and scored at least 68 DK points in three of the last four races.  He'll be in the #18 JGR car which is one of the best in the garage.  No longer a lock since he will start from the rear.  If he qualifies well, he's probably off the board for cash games.  If he goes conservative in qualifying and doesn't get a single digit qualifying start, he's still under consideration.  Would absolutely keep him in the driver pool for tournaments as his ownership will be lower then expected coming into the weekend.
  • I'm not nearly as high on Ryan Blaney.  The #12 team simply hasn't performed the way it should despite having Blaney, Keselowski and Logano in the car for a number of races.  I'd rather go up to Hamlin or down to Bell and Custer.  Had Top 5 or so speed in practice, but it's hard to see this car leading a bunch of laps or getting many fastest laps.  OK if position difference potential is there.
  • I'm pretty much out on Dale Jr as well.  Having not been in a race setting since Richmond last year, I really can't imagine him leading many laps or running many fastest laps at a difficult track like Darlington.  I've also got to think the events of the last few weeks have taken some of his attention away from race preparation and simulator time -- although, if you believe in a dramatic narrative, him winning here would certainly be that.  I do expect a Top 10 run and a strong finish, but I don't see him justifying that salary unless, of course, he starts way back.  Again, I'd rather go down to Bell and Custer.  Still feel this way on Dale Jr.  I wouldn't be surprised by a Top 10 or even flirting with the Top 5, but I don't see laps led or fastest laps.
• What about the top Xfinity rides:
  • I don't understand why Cole Custer is down to $9,400.  He's a great option at that price and I like him far better then Cindric and Allgaier (and even Dale Jr and Ryan Blaney) who are priced right above him.  Custer finished 2nd here last year -- ahead of Hamlin, Reddick, Bell and Chase Elliott.  Looking like a solid play.  Good speed in practice and was the only guy to do a 30-lap run in final practice.
  • I want to see where guys are running in practice, but this track often fits the guys running right up against the wall -- which is a Tyler Reddick specialty.  That's why he's more expensive then even Denny Hamlin this week.  In two races here, he's finished 16th and 3rd with no laps led and 16 fastest laps total.  He may end up too pricey for me unless I'm convinced he can run up front for a big chunk of the race.  Really like how Reddick looks.  Not great speed in practice but he was running the lower lane which is where cars need to go to pass during the race.  Was probably giving up some raw speed in practice to work on getting the car better for what he'll have to do in the race.
  • I like Bell at $10,200 -- which is $1,100 under Hamlin and $1,500 under Reddick.  He finished 2nd in Stage 1 here last year and was every bit as good as Ross Chastain who led the entire first stage.  Early in Stage 2, Bell got loose, made contact with another car and cut a tire.  Shortly after pitting, the tire went down again and he went hard into the wall ending his race.  He finished 34th in deep negative point territory.  I still like the discount down to him and think he has about as good a chance as Reddick to hit a bunch of laps led and fastest laps for $1,500 less salary.  Like Bell's chance to lead a bunch tomorrow.  Was top in 5-lap average and second in 10 lap and 15 lap average in final practice.
• I think we can afford as many as four of the top/expensive drivers because there are some very good options on the salary saver side:
  • Camden Murphy -- He'll be in the #93 car and appears to have sponsorship and the opportunity to run the full race.  If we think he is slated to run the full race, he's a must have at a near minimum price unless he qualifies really, really well.  (This is the same car/team that Josh Bilicki has had some success with when sponsored.)  Good signals on trying to run the full race here.  He ran 27 laps total in practice and the roster shows a full pit crew.
  • Vinnie Miller -- This guy is just an ideal punt play for me.  His salary is way down at $5,100, yet he produces each and every week.  The formula is real simple -- it's a slow car so he qualifies poorly but, unlike many of the cars back there, this team runs the full race week after week.  They don't even push it or try to pass people.  They simply log the laps and pass cars as they drop out of the race.  He usually ends up with a finish in the upper 20s and almost +10 position difference some weeks.  Throw out Watkins Glen where he wrecked in qualifying and didn't have a back up car.  Without that, he's at 25+ DK points in the last four races.  If he qualifies from 30th on back, he's a very strong punt play as you're virtually locking in a 5X return at his salary.  Speed was way off the pace in practice, so should qualify near last.  Like Mills better overall but will depend on where they both qualify.
  • Matt Mills -- Very similar profile to Vinnie Miller with possibly a bit more speed.
  • Ray Black Jr -- Not a punt play, but he's too cheap down at $6400.  He's scored 23+ DK points in six consecutive races and has 32+ DK points in five out of those six races.  This is the best car down in this salary range considering the combination of speed and reliability.  I also like that Black has 2 races worth of experience at Darlington.  In 2016, he finished 21st for 27 DK points and, in 2017, he finished 25th for 23 DK points.
  • BJ McLeod -- He's another reliable 20+ DK points week in and week out.  We know the JD Motorsports cars always work hard to finish the race.  BJ also has a lot of Darlington race experience and scored 23 and 27 DK points in the last two races there.  Good to go pending qualifying spot.
  • Landon Cassill -- He's another JD Motorsports driver.  He tends to qualify too well to be considered for cash games, but I'd have him in my driver pool for tournaments and can use in cash if he slips up in qualifying.  Last year, in a JD Motorsports car, he started 21st and finished 14th for 37 DK points.  He didn't do the Xfin race here in 2016 or 2017 but, before that, again for JD Motorsports, he started 19th and finished 5th for 53 DK points in 2015.  Again, I'm more conservative and wouldn't use him in a cash game if he qualifies in the Top 20, but absolutely go with it in tournaments.  Showed Top 15-20 speed in both practice sessions. 
  • I'll follow them, but I'm still mostly out on the MBM cars -- Finchum, Hill, Martins and Gase.  These cars just don't show the reliability of the JD Motorsports group and they sometimes park for no apparent reason. Too risky for my taste in cash games when there are comparable (if not better) options in the same price range.  Martins in the 13 looks likes a start & park.  Others may try to run, but can't be sure.
  • Looking like 4-5 start & parks -- 13, 17, 38, 74(?) and 89