darlington xfinity

We start the weekend with a Saturday afternoon Xfinity Series race. We've got some pretty good recent races to look back on to prepare for this weekend. The Series raced at Darlington just after the season resumed and there were two races at Homestead which is similar in that it has high tire wear, similar banking and a high line against the wall just like Darlington. So those are good races to look at and I'll be referring to them below.

Let's start with the obvious plays:

• Denny Hamlin will be very highly owned in all formats. He starts dead last in 37th and is the overwhelming favorite to win the race just like he did last Fall at Darlington (until he was DQed in post-race inspection). If he were to win, you're already locking in 82 DK points before even considering the many fastest laps and laps led he would have in that scenario. I can't really see any argument for fading Hamlin in cash games. Barring an accident or mechanical failure, he's very, very likely to hit a 5x return -- with a potential for much, much more.
• Noah Gragson is also in a great spot after his bad result last week at Daytona. He'll start 14th, should finish in the Top 8 and has race winning upside. He started the first Darlington race on the pole, led 46 laps and finished 5th. He was the best car in both races at Homestead, scoring 74 and 83 DK points in those races. And he's under priced at only $8,800. If he finishes 5th again, he's got 48 DK points (and well over a 5x return) even without any laps led or fastest laps. Gragson can get aggressive with other cars and the outside wall, but he's actually seemed a little more under control in recent weeks and his newly announced contract extension with this team may ease that aggression a bit, so I'm all in.
• Justin Allgaier offers the same package as Gragson, but is quite a bit more expensive at $10,400. I'd love to have them all, but it gets dicey if you pay up for all three of these studs.

We're obviously going to need some salary savers to make Hamlin's $16k salary work, so let's spend some time on the cheap guys:

• David Starr -- He's run this #07 car in about 5 races so far and typically finishes in the 18th-22nd range. He's a veteran driver on a solid team with a near minimum price tag. I'll take that.
• T.J. Martins has been running better and more reliably, but it's awfully risky starting 19th. Might have to bite the bullet here.
• I don't know about B.J. McLeod. He's normally in the #6 car for JD Motorsports, but this week he is in his own team car -- the #78 usually run by Vinnie Miller. I think he'll try to run the full race and, if he does, he should finish about where he's starting. I don't feel great about it, but using him could open up some other options on the top end.
• Currey and Weatherman are good if the cars hold up. But that's a big if. Mills and Vanderwal are OK, but aren't going to gain many spots and also carry mechanical risk. I feel like this guys are a little safer because of their starting spot, but they're also more expensive and limit some options on the high end.
• I don't like Leicht or Bean at all. Leicht has parked the car every time he's run the #66 at anything other then a super speedway. As for Bean, in the last two races, he's retired at the end of a tire run with a "power steering" issue. I don't buy it. The only race he's finished this year was at Pocono -- where his teammate Josh Williams crashed out early. I'm guessing this is an issue of tire availability for this team and that Bean parks by Lap 50 unless a teammate has an early problem again. I could be wrong about this, but I'm not taking the chance. I guess the only thing they offer is they are going to score positive points because they are already starting so far back.

Mid-tier targets:

• Brandon Brown -- Holding on to the last playoff spot. Absolutely needs a solid, no drama day, which is exactly what we want in a cash game lineup. Top 12 or so upside.
• Alex Labbe and Ryan Vargas -- Both with solid teams and both offer +10 position difference upside. Labbe has finished inside the Top 20 in the last three Darlington races.
• Austin Hill and Joe Graf Jr. -- To me, these two are a little more risky then Labbe/Vargas, but they're cheaper and they also offer +10 position difference upside if they don't run into problems.