daytona

Saturday Morning Update In Cup Section Below

In general, the best cash game strategy at "plate track" races like Daytona and Talladega is to roster drivers from decent teams who are starting from about 20th on back.  So much depends on starting spot and the good fortune of avoiding the Big One.  We are not focused on Dominators at all at the plate tracks because (1) fastest laps and laps led tend to be spread out much more then other types of tracks; and (2) there is extreme risk with drivers starting up front because they will score negative points if they get caught up in one of the wrecks.  We're focused on drivers starting further back who give us very strong position difference upside with little downside of negative points, etc. if they do get caught up in a wreck.

With those general concepts in mind, here are a few more specific notes to help guide you through lineup building for the Xfinity and Cup Series races on Friday and Saturday night.

XFINITY

• The February race was very unusual and very unlike any recent Daytona race.  In February, there was only a single two car crash.  We went the whole race and didn't have a Big One involving 4-5 or more cars.  As a result, we saw 35 of 38 cars running at the end of the race and 28 of 38 cars finishing on the lead lap.  To see how odd this was, let's look at the previous five Daytona races:
  • Summer 2018 -- 3 Big Ones, 22 of 40 cars running at the finish and only 18 of 40 cars finishing on the lead lap.
  • February 2018 -- 5 Big Ones, 27 of 40 cars running and 23 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Summer 2017 -- 5 Big Ones, 26 of 40 cars running and 26 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • February 2017 -- 5 Big Ones, 20 of 40 cars running and 19 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Summer 2016 -- 5 Big Ones, 27 of 40 cars running and 22 of 40 cars on the lead lap.
  • Thursday Night Update:  The trends hold going back even further.  In February 2016, there were 2 Big Ones and only 14 of 40 cars finished on the lead lap.  In Summer 2015, there were 2 Big Ones and only 9 cars finished on the lead lap.  In February 2015, there were once again 2 Big Ones and only 9 cars finished on the lead lap.  We have to go all the way back to the Summer of 2014 to have a Daytona race anything like what we saw in February this year.  In Summer 2014, we saw 2 crashes that each involved a couple of cars.  There was nothing like the 5+ car pileups we normally see at Daytona.  In that 2014 race, we saw 26 cars finish on the lead lap and all but 4 cars were running at the end of the race.
  • Nothing fundamental changed going into the February race.  It was just an outlier compared to every other recent Daytona race.  So it's very likely that this week's race will revert to something more like what we've seen in the prior Daytona races.  That plays right into our preferred strategy because it means multiple cars starting towards the front of the field are likely to crash out and score negative fantasy points.  That will kill those lineups and allow the more conservative lineups with drivers starting further back to finish up top.
• As far as what drivers to focus on, it really all depends on starting spot.  That said, there are some guys who seem to navigate the plate track races better then the competition.  These guys have been good at avoiding the Big One most of the time and finishing with a solid + position difference.  These are guys I'll be looking to roster if the starting spot is right.  For this list, I'm focusing first on the guys most likely to qualify far enough back to be good targets:
  • Landon Cassill -- Finished 9th with +13 position difference at the Talladega plate track race earlier this year.  Doesn't have much recent experience in Xfinity plate track races, but has solid background in these races in the Cup Series.  Will be with the solid #4 team that had been running with Ross Chastain most of the year.
  • Brandon Brown -- Finished 15th and 18th at plate track races earlier this year with +17 and +14 position difference.
  • Garrett Smithley -- Tends to qualify poorly and race pretty well.  Finished on the lead lap in four of the last six Daytona races with two Top 10 finishes in those races.  Four Top 12 finishes in the last six plate track races with about +20 position difference in each of those races.
  • David Starr -- Top 20 finishes in five of the last six plate track races.
  • Timmy Hill -- Top 20 and lead lap finishes in all three Daytona races.
  • Vinnie Miller -- Top 20 finishes in four of five career plate track races.
  • Jeff Green -- He's normally a start and park but is sponsored this week and expected to run the full race.  He did so in the February Daytona race and finished 7th.  Has three Top 20 finishes in his last four Daytona races.
  • A.J. Allmendinger -- Had a very solid career in the Cup Series at plate tracks.  Doing his first Xfinity race of the season for the Kaulig team.  
  • Ross Chastain -- In the last six Daytona races, he has finished on the lead lap and has a worst finishing position of 16th.  He has three Top 10 finishes in those six races.  Ross is also in a Kaulig car this week which is a step up for him.  May qualify too well to fit the preferred strategy.
  • Tyler Reddick -- In the last five plate track races, he has two wins and two more Top 10 finishes.  He will probably start too far forward to fit the safer cash game strategy, but would still be a tournament option.
  • Christopher Bell -- Has finished the last three plate track races in the Top 6.  Like Reddick, he will probably start too far forward to fit the safer cash game strategy, but would still be a tournament option
  • Austin Cindric -- 5th place finishes at both Daytona and Talladega earlier this year.  But will probably start too far forward for cash.
  • John Hunter Nemechek -- In three career plate track races, he's finished 6th, 7th and 8th.  Probably tournament only.
  • Noah Gragson -- In three career plate track races, he's finished 4th and 11th twice.  Probably tournament only.
• Thursday Night Update -- Mike Harmon and Joe Nemechek are the only two drivers who didn't run a lap in the lone practice on Thursday.  As best I can tell, neither brought a pit crew to the track so they are very likely to be start and parks.  Advise avoiding both altogether in all formats.  I'm also going to avoid Stefan Parsons, who was a late insertion into the #99 car.  That team actually has some decent finishes with Tommy Joe Martins this year, but Parsons has never raced in the Xfinity Series or at a plate track before.
• Thursday Night Update -- One final note directed mostly at those playing in tournaments.  In three of the last four Daytona races, JR Motorsports cars have finished 1-2 at the front of the field.  In February, the four car team finished 1-2-10-11.  The driver lineup for Friday's race is Michael Annett, Justin Allgaier, Noah Gragson and Sheldon Creed.  All four will probably qualify too well to enter the cash game picture, but they are all tournament options.

CUP SERIES

• I'll add to this after qualifying on Friday.
• This is an impound race.  There is no tech inspection before qualifying.  Inspection will be done Saturday morning/afternoon before the race.  If a car fails, it's qualifying time is disallowed and it's official starting spot moves to the rear of the field.  Expect some chaos then because any decent cars that fail will immediately become heavily owned chalk.
  • ​Saturday Morning Update -- I believe the impound stuff is no longer an issue.  Since qualifying was cancelled due to rain, I believe tech inspection was completed Friday and any cars that failed still keep their spot and do not drop to the rear.  Just double check DraftKings and/or FanDuel starting spots before lock.
• Saturday Morning Update -- The cash game strategy largely worked well in Friday's Xfinity race.  Brandon Brown from 33rd to 6th, Jeremy Clements from 37th to 9th, Ray Black Jr from 36th to 13th and Garrett Smithley from 35th to 14th.  Of the Top 14 finishers in Friday night's race, 8 started from 25th or worse.  So let's identify the Cup drivers starting further back who we'll be focused on for Saturday night:
  • I don't really dislike anyone from 25th on back.  I've got some concern for Tiftt (two poor plate track performances this season) and Houff (first Cup Series plate track race).  Since there's other good options, I'll probably avoid those two.  I don't want to give away a lineup, but I will specify why I like a few of the guys better than others.
  • ​Pretty much locked in Brendan Gaughan (39th) and Parker Klingerman (36th)
    • ​Gaughan has done the last five Daytona races for Beard Motorsports and finished 11th, 7th, 28th, 12th and 23rd.  They've also done the last five Talladega races and finished 26th, 19th, 22nd, 12th and 8th.  That's pretty strong performance across the board and there's no downside starting 39th.
    • Klingerman was in the #96 car at Daytona and Talladega earlier this season.  He finished 15th at Daytona and 27th at Talladega.  Again, no downside starting 36th. 
  • I'm OK with Gase starting last (40th).  The #53 is a part time Rick Ware team.  They've run twice before this year with full race efforts at Charlotte and Chicago.  Gase has been decent at the plate tracks over the last few years.  Over six plate track races in that time, he's averaged finishing in the mid-20s.
  • Also fine with Chastain starting 38th.  Reed Sorenson has been in the #27 most of the season.  This car finished dead last at Daytona in February, but rebounded with an 18th place finish and +19 position difference at Talladega.  Chastain is a really good (but sometimes aggressive) plate track racer.  He ran 10th in the Daytona February race this year in the #15 car, which is comparable equipment to the #27.  After winning the Xfinity race, he's likely to be very highly owned.
  • In closing, there are plenty of good options starting 25th on back.  No reason to start anyone in a higher starting spot for cash games.