daytona 1

Some general comments on my approach to plate track races.  Looking back at 3 years of data from Daytona, it is very clear that you want to build your lineups around guys starting from 20th on back.  It is just too risky to take more than 1 or 2 guys starting in the Top 20 because so many of those drivers get involved in an incident and finish from 30th on back.  The negative position difference in that situation just kills you.  The guys starting further back have much more limited downside and much more substantial upside.  So, as a general rule, I'm looking for drivers on credible teams starting further back.  When I say a credible team, it means an established team with a good engine shop or supplier and a good pit crew.  This should keep unforced errors to a minimum and give your drivers the best chance to finish the race in one piece on the lead lap.

Here are a few drivers who stick out when I study recent Daytona results:

• Joey Logano -- The defending champ seems to rise to the occasion in the biggest races.  In the past three Daytona 500 races, he's finished 4th, 6th and 6th.  That said, he tends to start too far forward to be a viable cash game play.  He might be a tournament option though.
• Ryan Newman -- He's finished the last three Daytona races in the Top 10, and has finished in the Top 18 in five of the last six.  That's a remarkably consistent performance at a plate track.  However, he has switched teams from RCR to Rousch, which is some cause for concern.
• Bubba Wallace -- Finished in the Top 15 in all three of his Daytona races -- including a 2nd place finish in his only Daytona 500 last year.
• Ryan Blaney -- He's been a huge point scorer in the last two Daytona 500 races.  In 2017, he started 36th but finished 2nd for a huge + PD day.  In 2018, he started 3rd and finished 7th, but incredibly led 118 laps.  We almost never see such a dominant lap leader at a plate track.  Unlike most other tracks, however, those laps led rarely translate into fastest laps.  When Blaney led 118 laps, he still only had 5 fastest laps which limited his bonus point total.
• Chris Buescher -- Top 10 in the last three Daytona races.  This whole company -- JTG Daugherty -- has been very strong at Daytona the last few years.  I'd hesitate to use his new teammate Ryan Preece, however, given his youth and inexperience in a Cup car.  Starting spot will determine whether Buescher is a lock and whether Preece can become a viable option.
• Austin Dillon -- The defending race winner has four Top 10 finishes in the last six Daytona races.  Again, this company -- RCR -- as a whole has been strong here the last several years. 
• Lots will change after pole qualifying and The Duels next Thursday.  Since starting spot means so much, we won't have a useful list of real targets until the field is set.

Lastly, if you have not heard about the major NASCAR post-race inspection change announced earlier this week, please go read about it here.  The short of it is that post-race inspection will now be done on site immediately following the race.  If the race winner fails inspection, he will be disqualified and the drivers who finished behind him will move up a spot so long as they do pass inspection.  This could result in major changes to the race results in the hour or two following the race.  I have not yet definitively heard if FanDuel and DK will wait to determine and pay contest winners until after inspection is complete.  I assume they will, but have not yet seen official word.