daytona 500

On to the main event, The Daytona 500.  Let's hope it offers a bit more excitement compared to the Xfinity race on Saturday.  With the way the cars have played follow the leader around the top of the track this week, I'm a bit worried about our normal plate track strategy of using guys starting from 20th on back.  I do think we'll see more action in the 500 though, so I still think that's the way to go for cash games and 50/50s.  In tournaments, however, I'm definitely playing it more aggressive (and risky) by using some guys starting closer to the front.  Here are some more detailed lineup building notes:

• Brad Keselowski (starting 35th) and Kyle Busch (31st) -- These guys should be at near 100% ownership in cash games.  They aren't all that expensive to begin with and, in any event, salary savings are easy to find at the plate tracks.  The upside here is massive and there's virtually no downside in the way of a crushing negative return that you can get with guys starting in the front half of the field.  There's absolutely no reason to fade either of these guys in cash games. 
• Keselowski and Busch (continued) -- In tournaments, I could see fading one (or even both) to differentiate yourself, but I think that strategy (especially fading both) is best reserved for the really big, multi-entry contests.  Before you say it's crazy to fade both, consider this from last year's Daytona 500 -- Keselowski started 31st and Jimmie Johnson started 35th, the exact same scenario we have this year with KB and BK.  Well, in last year's race, Keselowski finished 32nd and scored only 12 DK points while Johnson finished 38th and scored only 3.5 DK points.  There's almost no chance that happens again here, but you would jump 90%+ of the field if you fade both guys and lighting strikes for a second year in a row.
• Eric Jones (28th) and Kyle Larson (26th) -- It's really hard to fade either of these guys in cash games as well.  We know Eric Jones won the last Cup race at Daytona in July and he did so from the 29th starting spot.  Larson hasn't had recent success here, but he's obviously with a strong team and is likely to have the speed to move forward.  He did finish in the Top 10 in both Daytona races in 2016 as well, so he has shown strong performance here in the past.  Finally, I suspect both will be at or near 50% ownership in cash games so, if either guy (or both) finishes up front and you don't have him (or them), you'll be digging out of a huge hole and will really have to hit on your last two guys.
• Here are some guys I'd be looking at to fill out the roster.  I'll separate them into two groups -- guys starting 15th-25th and those from 26th on back.
• 15th-25th:  Ryan Newman (19th) -- three straight Top 10 finishes at Daytona and worst finish of 21st in the last six Daytona races.  Austin Dillon (20th) -- two Top 10 finishes at Daytona last year (including a win in the 500) and four Top 10 finishes in the last six Daytona races.  Also like Chris Buescher (15th) and Ty Dillon (22nd) as contrarian tournament only plays.
• 26th and beyond:  Michael McDowell (34th) -- Finished 15th or better in five of the last six Daytona races.  Tyler Reddick (39th) -- Done well at Daytona in the Xfinity series and he'll be running in strong equipment in the #31 from Richard Childress.  Also like Brendan Gaughan (30th), Corey Lajoie (32nd) and Ross Chastain (36th), but more as tournament plays because they are with weaker teams so, among other things, won't have true teammates to pit with or work with in the draft and will have less reliable equipment and pit stops.

Good luck and let's hope for an entertaining, but safe, race.