daytona 500

2/15/2020

And now the main event. I've covered the plate track strategy for cash games throughout the week, so let's get into a few specifics I'm focused on:

I think the very back of the field is exactly what we want for cash games at a super speedway. We've got veteran drivers with teams that are likely to be very patient, ride conservatively in the back of the field and wait for carnage to strike up front.
- Reed Sorenson and BJ McLeod had decent runs on super speedways last year with the same teams they are running with on Sunday.
- LaJoie finished in the Top 18 in all four super speedway races last year.
- Joey Gase is a veteran with a lot of super speedway races in the Cup and Xfinity Series under his belt.
To round out the roster, focus on the 28th-31st starting spots. I think each of these drivers will be pretty heavily owned with Kyle Busch probably leading the way. My only reservation with Busch and Bowyer is that they will probably very quickly move up through the field and be running in the highest crash danger zone. For cash games, I tend to prefer someone like Ragan or Preece because they're more likely to hang back in a relatively safe position and let the race play out a bit. That said, Busch or Bowyer could win the race and score a whole lot of points doing so, so they're a somewhat risky fade.

A couple of betting ideas:

Look at some head to head match ups. I'm seeing some pretty good options at +130 or better. The reality is that it's not much more than a coin flip as to which guy is going to finish ahead of the other at a super speedway. Any time you can get +130 or even more on a reputable driver, it's a good play.
- Bowman and Bowyer +140 against Keselowski
- Bowman, Bowyer and Johnson +155 against Hamlin
- Custer, Bell, Buescher +150 against Kurt Busch
You can also look at some race win long shots. Anything can happen and some good drivers on great teams have some really long odds:
- Almirola, Bowyer and DiBennedetto +2600 and Eric Jones +3050 are a couple that I'll lay a few bucks on.

Leave a Reply.