daytona - cup and xfinity

I'm going to cover these two races together because the overall strategy is so similar. It's a plate track with pack racing so we're going to see a number of wrecks that eliminate about half the field by the end of the race. The goal here is to survive as much as possible and limit your downside by using cars starting in the back half of the field. Particularly in cash games, this is really the only strategy that makes any sense.

The specific profile we're looking for is cars starting from about 25th on back that are with bigger teams or are otherwise pretty reliable. Hopefully we can find a few drivers with good track records in these races as well. In the Xfinity Series, I might stretch up to about the 20th starting spot because the back end of the field tends to include some really inexperienced drivers and/or unreliable teams and equipment.

With that background, here's the guys I'm considering for Friday and Saturday night:

Xfinity Series (Friday)

• We're locking in A.J. Allmendinger. There is no reason whatsoever to fade him in cash games. This is a no brainer.
• The B.J. McLeod Motorsports cars tend to do pretty well at plate races because they just ride around together at the rear of the field and wait for other cars to wreck out. The only downside is the cars are not the most reliable, so we do have some mechanical failure risk here. They've got three cars starting from 29th on back -- Matt Mills (29th), Vinnie Miller (30th) and Joey Gase (33rd). I'm fine with any of them, but I'm almost certainly using Vinnie Miller who has finished in the Top 20 in four of the last five races at Daytona and two of the last three races at Talladega.
  
• B.J. McLeod himself drives an Xfinity car for J.D. Motorsports, not his own team. B.J. starts 23rd on Friday night and that's a little too far forward for me to be real excited about him. But, he does tend to run these races conservatively in the back, so that reduces his risk for getting caught up in the wrecks. His teammate Jeffrey Earnhardt starts next to him in 24th. I'd think Earnhardt would run pretty conservatively as well. He has two Top 15 finishes in his last three plate tracks races in the Xfinity Series.
• Gray Gaulding in the #07 is another solid choice starting 28th. The #02 car finished 8th in both the plate tracks run earlier this year. Gaulding was in the car for the 8th place run at the last plate track race at Talladega. He's finished in the Top 10 in the last three races he's run at plate tracks in the Xfinity Series. The only possible issue here is that he does sometimes try to run with the lead pack, which exposes him to increased risk of wrecking.
• Timmy Hill is back in the #61 this week, so should be good to go for the full race. He finished 3rd in the season opening race at Daytona this Spring. And he's finished 21st or better in his last five races at Daytona.
  • Hill's teammate John Jackson is in the #66 car on Friday night. Jackson drove and parked this car by about Lap 30 at the last plate track race at Talladega. Too risky, notwithstanding the 37th starting spot.
• Mike Harmon starts 35th. He ran the #74 at the two prior plate track races this year, finishing 16th at Daytona and 25th at Talladega. He'll definitely be running conservatively way behind the lead pack, so we just want him to finish the race and avoid the wrecks.

Cup Series (Saturday)

• Chase Elliott has race winning upside from the 27th starting spot. I will almost certainly use him. But, he has no Top 10 finishes at Daytona and he will be running in the lead pack for is at increased risk of wrecking. I think you have to do it in cash games since he's starting 27th and will probably be heavily owned, but I can certainly see a strong case for fading him in tournaments.
  
• Ross Chastain starting 36th is almost a must play if I can confirm this is essentially a Chip Ganassi Racing entry. Ross has been supported by CGR in his other Cup races in the #77 car this year and I believe that's the case again this week.
  
• Corey LaJoie has finished in the Top 18 in the last six races at plate tracks. He's obviously got a good approach working right now. I don't love that he's starting 25th though.
  
• Rickey Stenhouse has some great results at the plate tracks. He's very aggressive though, so isn't the safest of plays. But starting 31st gives us a really solid floor and takes away most of the risk of any kind of negative points day.
  
• Brendan Gaughan started 39th and finished 7th in the season opening Daytona race this Spring. He's got a pretty solid track record at the plate tracks. Starting 40th, he's obviously got a really high floor with a lot of positive place differential upside as well. This is very much a part time team, though, so you wonder how reliable the car will be -- especially with it being prepped in these unusual COVID times.
• There's a number of other decent options starting from 25th on back. Even the Rick Ware cars come into play in a race like this. A guy like J.J. Yeley has finished 18th and 12th in his last two Daytona races in sub-standard equipment. Obviously, these cars are not the most reliable, so we do have mechanical risk.