daytona day recap & atlanta nuggets

Thank you to everyone who visited the site on Daytona Day.  We shattered all previous traffic records here as people are seeing all we can provide.

After each race this season, we're going to do a recap and look ahead.  In the recap, we'll go through some observations and analysis of the just completed race and review how our driver targets and predictions turned out.  In the look ahead, we'll provide just a few nuggets of fantasy relevant information for the upcoming week's race.  Here we go.

Daytona 500 Recap:  Four big wrecks played a huge role in whether you had a good or bad fantasy racing day.  All four were the direct result of cars blocking strong runs coming from behind.  I suppose it's something that is going to happen at plate tracks, but I just don't understand blocking at the front of the field in the first half of the race.  It seems like the first two big wrecks could have been avoided.  I get blocking in the closing laps, and I saw all the action there as "just racing".  In the last incident, Almirola did what he had to do to try to stay in front and Dillon did what I think 99 out of 100 drivers would do in his position.

How did we do with our drivers and predictions this week?  Our top picks were Brad Keselowski, Aric Almirola and Kyle Larson.  All three picks were the right ones, but we got a bit unlucky -- particularly with Almirola.  He was out front and poised to win (or at least finish in the top five) after starting 37th.  Dillon got a run on him, Almirola went to block it and got knocked into the fence a mile from the finish line.  He came home 11th and still scored 62.25 points, but he came inches away from having a banner day.  Larson seemed to get dinged every time there was a wreck and his car was not right at the end.  He finished 19th and still scored 47 points, but it seemed like a disappointment considering what might have been.  BK really killed us.  He had a run on the 9 car, tried to pass him on a late inside move, the 9 went to block, and they came together.  From the post-incident interview, it was pretty clear that Brad regretted the chance he took that early in the race.  He was running in the top five and there were still almost 20 laps left in Stage 2.  In hindsight, it would have been much better to back it down there.  But those are split second decisions and I'll always take my chances with BK at the plate tracks.  Here, however, he finished 32nd and scored only 12 points.

Our next group was Martin Truex Jr., Kasey Kahne, AJ Allmendinger and Jimmie Johnson.  I'm really proud of the Allmendinger pick.  I did not see anyone else touting him this week and he was only about 10% owned in the games I played.  He finished 10th and scored 45.75 points at a minimal salary.  This was our best call of the week.  Kahne was looking good and running in the Top 10 but got taken out as an innocent bystander in the Keselowski incident.  That was a killer for us because Kahne was only around 20% owned in the games I played and could have combined with Allmendinger to form a winning, low-owned combination.  Truex was also running near the front late, but got caught up in the second to last incident and had pretty heavy front end damage.  That took him from a Top 10 finish to 18th.  And Jimmie was looking great.  He went from starting in the back to the Top 5 in Stage One alone.  He had a potentially huge points day, but got taken out as an innocent bystander in the first "big one".  So this group had one great call and three very, very unlucky ones.  That is the way it goes sometimes at plate tracks.
 
Our last group was Hamlin, Logano, Blaney and Stenhouse.  The first three guys there finished 3rd, 4th and 7th.  While they didn't have position difference bonuses to speak of, they each paid very solid points.  Stenhouse got front end damage in one of the incidents, began to overheat at the end of Stage 2 and finished 29th.

Our bold predictions were (1) Some combination of 4 cars from Penske and SHR would finish in the Top 10.  Not quite.  Two Penskes were in the Top 10, but the SHR crew just missed out.  Almirola finished 11th and Bowyer 15th.  (2) A Penske or SHR car wins.  Nope.  Dillion's Chevy broke Ford's seven race winning streak at plate tracks.  (3) At most 1 Hendrick car finishes in the Top 20.  Nailed it!  The only Hendrick car in the Top 20 was Alex Bowman who finished 17th.  (4) RCR and affiliate Germain will put two cars in the Top 10.  YES!  Dillon won and Newman finished 8th.

On To Atlanta:  We start the real weekly grind next week at Atlanta.  It's an old worn out track that just beats up the cars.  A few quick nuggets from recent Atlanta races:

• Brad Keselowski won at Atlanta last year and has three consecutive top ten finishes.
• Kevin Harvick has three consecutive top ten finishes and has led an amazing 539 of 980 (55%) laps in the last three races at Atlanta.  Even more amazing is that he has not won any of those races.  Harvick loves to hook the bottom yellow line and ride it all day at Atlanta.  If he is able to get the handling of the car right in practice, he could dominate once again.
• Chase Elliott has finished in the top ten in both of his Atlanta races.
• Martin Truex Jr. has three consecutive top ten finishes at Atlanta.

We'll be talking about all these drivers as the week progresses.

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