DAYTONA EARLY UPDATE

WOW!  What a race that was in Chicago.  If you didn't love that racing action, something is wrong.  I don't like Kyle Busch by any means, but that was still an awesome finish.

Sorry to all who checked for updates last Saturday and Sunday before the Chicago race.  I got sick and just didn't have the time or energy to do the research and work I need to do to write a good strategy article.  I'll be back with a full complement of material this week.

Moving on to Daytona, I've mentioned several times over the life of this blog that I don't like plate track races.  Luck and random stuff determines so much in these races.  It takes away from the advantage that we from outworking and outsmarting the competition the other weeks.  That said, we'll plow ahead and do our best.  I'm going to start with my first set of Daytona notes and then revisit a list I did earlier this year of things to remember for plate track races:

First Set of Daytona Notes

• Bubba Wallace seems to have a good feel at plate tracks.  He has finished 2nd and 15th in two Daytona races.
  
• Aric Almirola has finished in the Top 15 in six of the last seven Daytona races.  Those races include a win in the 43 car in 2014 and a near win in this year's Daytona 500.
  
• Michael McDowell has five straight Top 15 finishes at Daytona.
  
• Joey Logano has finished in the Top 6 in four of the last five Daytona races.
• A.J. Allmendinger has three straight Top 10 finishes.
• Ryan Newman has finished in the Top 8 the last two races.
• Paul Menard has three straight Top 6 finishes.  WHAT?
• Kyle Busch has finished 20th or worse in three straight races.
• Brad Keselowski has finished 20th or worse in six of the last seven races.  The one race in that span when he finished in the Top 20 was in 2016 when he won this July race.
• Kevin Harvick has finished 31st, 33rd, 22nd and 39th in the last four at Daytona.
• Jimmie Johnson has finished 34th or worse in three of the last four.
• Chase Elliott has qualified well here, but he has only one Top 20 (a 14th place finish) in his five Cup Series races at Daytona.

Plate Track Approach -- I'm going to re-post what I wrote back in February before the Daytona 500.  Bottom line - I like to pull back on plate track weekends by playing less money and doing more tournaments than cash games.  Also, do yourself a favor and don't check your score often (if at all) during the race.  You can quite literally go from first to worst or worst to first when the next "Big One" strikes.  Nothing will be decided until the very end in this one.
[Originally posted in February 2018] -- With cars hitting the track for practice, qualifying and "The Clash" this coming weekend, it's time to start thinking about lineups for the Daytona 500.  First a few general concepts to remember for plate track races:

• There is always a "big one," or two, or three.  These races are notorious for having one or more huge crashes that can take out a dozen cars or more.  Part of the key to approaching a plate track race is finding guys who have a tendency to survive to the end of the race.
• Don't focus too much on practice speeds.  In practice this week, so much depends on what the drivers are working on.  Some (like Jimmie Johnson) are notorious for working on single car runs and will be at the bottom of the speed chart because of that.  Others just want to preserve their engine and other parts, so don't run much at all.  And some like to simulate race conditions and get a lot of drafting practice.  If they hit it just right, they will post a great lap time, but probably overstate their true speed and handling comfort relative to the field.  By and large, you can ignore it all and just enjoy the sight and sound of cars back on the track.  If you take anything from it, listen carefully to driver interviews or commentary to see who feels the most comfortable with their car.
• Honestly, I hate doing fantasy games for plate track races.  There is so much that is outside the driver's control and random chance plays just as much a role as anything else.  But it's been a long off-season and it's the Daytona 500, so even if it's DFS, you still can't resist, right.  I sure can't.
• Because of what I just said, I would generally advise to stay away from the big names at plate tracks.  They just don't have as big of a built in advantage as they do at other tracks because they are just as likely to get caught up in a wreck as anyone else.  And, as the saying goes, the draft is the great equalizer.  It allows the middle and lower tier teams to race right up aside the big boys.  Remember this especially in games where you have limits on the number of times you can use a driver during the season -- like the new NASCAR Fantasy Live game.  Don't burn one of your races for a top driver at a plate track.