daytona (final)

The XFinity race shows once again the chaos and randomness that comes with plate track racing.  There really is almost no predictability to what will happen and luck is the biggest factor in these races.  And, whatever you do, don't bother watching the in race fantasy standings because nothing matters until the last lap.

It's really hard for me to pinpoint particular drivers this week, so I'm going to take a more broad picture and overall approach/strategy approach.

• There are some good plate track drivers starting in the Top 10, but I wouldn't take more than one of them and I am perfectly comfortable taking none.  Of the Top 10 starters, I like Keselowski, Harvick and Bowyer the best.  I think I'm avoiding Top 10 starters if I'm playing cash, but might take one in a tournament lineup.
• The clump of guys from 11-17 look pretty good.  Logano, Blaney and Hamlin all seem to do pretty well at the plate tracks.  The Kyles are more tournament plays for me, but should have good speed and reliable stuff, so it really boils down to whether they miss the wrecks.  Truex seems to do well at plate tracks too, but he's never won a plate track race.  I would take maybe one and at most two of these guys.
• From 22nd on back, there is a good group of solid drivers and you could make a case for rostering only these guys.  I'll do that in a few tournament entries, but sprinkle in one or two of the guys above on most teams.  Here are the guys I am focusing on from 22nd on back, favorites in bold:
  • Bubba Wallace (22nd).  See below -- done pretty well at plate tracks so far.
  • Kurt Busch (23rd).  Been in a wreck the last two Daytona races, but before that he finished Top 10 in four of five -- including a win in the 2017 Daytona 500.  You know he'll have speed and be in top notch equipment.
  • AJ Allmendinger (24th).  See below -- three straight Top 10 finishes.
  • Chris Buescher (25th).  Two straight Top 10 finishes.
  • Aric Almirola (26th).  See below.  Due for a win and nearly won the Daytona 500 this year.  Lock and load.
  • Jamie McMurray (27th).  I won't be that much into him this week.  He has some upside, but he hasn't finished better than 14th here since July 2013.  He tends to get himself in trouble with overaggressive driving at the plate tracks.  Tournament only.
  • Kasey Kahne (28th).  A tournament only guy if you're doing multiple entries.
  • Eric Jones (29th).  Worth a tournament play because he's in good stuff, but 36th, 9th and 39th in three Daytona Cup Series races.
  • Paul Menard (30th).  See below.  Three straight Top 6 finishes.  From this starting spot, there's almost all upside.
  • Matt DiBenedetto (31st).  I'm not targeting him, but not a bad choice with upside if you need to save salary.
  • Daniel Suarez (32nd - starting from rear).  He's struggled at plate tracks -- finished 37th, 17th and 29th at Daytona.  But he has value from this starting spot in good equipment.
  • Ross Chastain (33rd).  He generally does a solid job with sub-par equipment for this 15 team.  Has a solid XFinity plate track record and finished 10th on Saturday.
  • Landon Cassill (37th).  He's a decent driver, but in pretty bad equipment.  I doubt you'll need this big a salary saver, but he fits there or as the best of the bottom feeders if you want to have one of them for the position difference upside if they avoid the wrecks.

Good luck everyone, but don't overdo it this weekend.