daytona trucks

Note for new readers and a reminder for returning fans -- my Daytona analysis is much different and shorter than other tracks. By and large, I stick to the plate track strategy I discuss more below. Please use the comments section for any questions or feedback you have. Thanks for reading and check back for updates before the race on Friday.

Friday Update 2: Start cash game pool from Jordan Anderson in 23rd on back. Plenty of good options in the last ten starting spots. Friesen probably needs to be used in cash games, but full fade for me in tournaments. That team used to buy trucks from a bigger team (GMS) and now they brought the operation in house for this season. I am concerned especially early in the season. Like Creed, Rhodes and Enfinger in tournaments.

Friday Update 1: A few bets that I like a bit. As always with Daytona, keep the amount low because so much is random.

• Crafton +135 over Moffitt. At Daytona, it's a flip of the coin which one will finish ahead, so I like the +135 odds. Moffitt has been unlucky here -- wrecked and finished 22nd or worse in the last three races at Daytona. Crafton finished ahead of him in all three of those races.
• Enfinger +1600 and Rhodes +2000 to win. Over the last seven plate track races, Enfinger has finished in the Top 10 five times with one win. He's got as good a shot as anyone to win but has better odds then a group of 7-8 other guys who have about the same chance of winning. Rhodes is the only guy with a championship caliber team that is as high as +2000. 
• John Hunter Nemechek +2000 to win. He only runs a few truck races a year and they are all "checkers or wreckers" efforts. He doesn't care about points or finishing position - just winning. So I'll throw a few bucks at +2000. But, understand, he's much more likely to wreck then win. [OR NOT - A SURPRISING DID NOT QUALIFY]

Main Thursday Post
Truck races at Daytona are almost always crazy. They can sometimes be tame until the last 10-15 laps, but chaos seems to reign by race end. Here's a sample from the last three Daytona truck races:

• 2019 -- 7 wrecks. Only 9 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 9, 4 of them started in the back half of the field and only 2 of them started in the Top 10.
• 2018 -- 4 wrecks. 15 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 15, 8 started in the back half of the field and only 4 of them started in the Top 10.
• 2017 -- 4 wrecks. 13 of 32 trucks finish on the lead lap. Of those 13, 6 started in the back half of the field and 5 of them started in the Top 10.
• Bottom line -- Only about one-third of the field will finish on the lead lap. And it's more likely a truck starting in the back half of the field will finish on the lead lap as compared to a truck starting in the Top 10.

So, as far as cash game, 50/50, double-up strategy goes, this is clearly a race where the "plate track strategy" tends to work. You want to start the best trucks possible starting the farthest back in the field. You're focus should be on drivers starting 15th (at best, maybe more like 20th) on back. The negative position difference downside of starting a driver closer to the front is just too great to make it work for cash games.

It's hard to identify any particular drivers since we won't know qualifying results until shortly before the race. Here are a few guys that have done well recently at "plate tracks" -- but, remember, luck is a huge part of these races so you can't read too much into recent results. And, at least in the case of Enfinger and Hill, they'll probably start too far forward to be considered for cash games.

• Grant Enfinger - Been running at the end of the last 6 plate track races with 4 Top 10 finishes.
• Austin Hill - 11th or better in his 4 plate track races in the Truck Series.
• Austin Wayne Self - Mechanical issue in the last plate track race, but running at the end in the 5 before that.
• Spencer Boyd - 13th, 4th and 1st place finishes in three Truck Series starts on plate tracks.

And now a few folks I'd like to avoid if at all possible:

• Natalie Decker - Frequently referred to as Natalie Wrecker, she's not someone I'm ever eager to use in a cash game setting. Fine for larger tournaments because she's actually in decent equipment with a decent team.
• Tate Fogleman - Little experience in the Truck Series and no super speedway experience. His background is as a short track racer.
• Todd Peck - Not a lot of experience and just too many question marks.
• Clay Greenfield - Concerned because his truck crapped out on pit road during the first practice. He got a few laps in during second practice, but I'm always concerned when a truck from a lesser funded team like this has gremlins during practice.

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